Reims 0-0 Monaco – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Monaco at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Monaco encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Reims and Monaco meet at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 1 (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Current Form

Reims's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Reims at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Monaco have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Monaco have gone 7W 0D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Monaco arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Reims's last 10 home games and Monaco's last 10 away games) — Reims have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Monaco in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Reims, 2 for Monaco and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Jan 2024, ended Reims 3–1 Monaco — a Reims win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Reims half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reims 65% and Monaco 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 56% | Monaco 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.16 xG and Monaco 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.898 / defence 1.091 | Monaco attack 1.276 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.288. Monaco have an above-average attack rating of 1.276, which lifts their away xG to 1.79. Data: built from Reims's last 48 games and Monaco's last 48.

Result probabilities: Reims 24% | Draw 25% | Monaco 51%. Fair-value odds: Reims 4.26 | Draw 3.94 | Monaco 1.96. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Monaco at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Reims's last 10 home games and Monaco's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Reims 70% (last 10 home games) | Monaco 60% (last 10 away games).

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