Reims 0-2 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Reims and Lille meet at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Reims's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Reims haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Reims's home record at Stade Auguste-Delaune: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lille have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lille haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Lille have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Lille are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Reims, 2 for Lille and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Lille winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Reims — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Lille — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 65% versus Lille 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 56% | Lille 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.29 xG and Lille 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.929 / defence 0.870 | Lille attack 0.911 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.561. Data: 34 Reims games / 34 Lille games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Reims 38% | Draw 27% | Lille 35%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Lille 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lille (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Reims 50% | Lille 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 38% | Draw 27% | Lille 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Reims 1.29 / Lille 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.929 / def 0.870 | Lille attack 0.911 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.561 • Poisson stance: Reims (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Lille xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Lille kick off?
Reims vs Lille kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Lille?
Reims 0 - 2 Lille.
Where is Reims vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Lille part of?
Reims vs Lille is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 38% chance of winning, Lille a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Reims and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lille?
Record (6 meetings): Reims 3W | Draws 1 | Lille 2W.
What form are Reims and Lille in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Reims (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.93x the league average against Lille's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lille's attack (0.91x) against Reims's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
38%
2.65
27%
3.73
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Reims xG
Total xG
2.52
1.24
Lille xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Reims and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Reims and 1.24 for Lille, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims come into this having played 34 games, going 13W 8D 13L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. Reims haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.74 PPG from 34 outings (16W 11D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. Lille haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Reims against 1.74 for Lille. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Reims's home form reads 8W 3D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.29 points per game from 17 outings (5W 7D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's season.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.53 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reims have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lille in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Pre-Season
Lille
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Lille in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 13W 8D 13L in their last 34 games (1.38 PPG), while Lille have gone 16W 11D 7L in their last 34 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Lille away?
Reims's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.59 PPG; Lille away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Reims or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Lille in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Lille have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Reims
1
Draws
4
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lille?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 3, Lille have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when Lille 2-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 47%, Lille 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Reims) and 41% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Lille in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Reims's recent matches and 59% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Reims's recent games and 41% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Lille tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lille in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Reims.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Reims 0-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.29 xG and Lille 1.24 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Reims fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.93 / defence 0.87 against Lille attack 0.91 / defence 0.94, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 38% | Draw 27% | Lille 35%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 56%, Lille 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Lille's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.38 PPG, Lille 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lille (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.