Reims 2-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 36%, yet in-form Clermont Foot provide a compelling counter-argument — this Reims vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Delaune plays host to Reims versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Reims (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reims at Stade Auguste-Delaune this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Reims are significantly better at Stade Auguste-Delaune than their overall form suggests.
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Clermont Foot are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Reims, 2 for Clermont Foot and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Reims — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 49% versus Clermont Foot 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 46% | Clermont Foot 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.40 xG and Clermont Foot 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.985 / defence 0.993 | Clermont Foot attack 1.034 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.348. Data: 39 Reims games / 39 Clermont Foot games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Reims 36% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 35%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Clermont Foot 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Clermont Foot (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Reims 50% | Clermont Foot 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 36% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Reims 1.40 / Clermont Foot 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.985 / def 0.993 | Clermont Foot attack 1.034 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Reims (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Clermont Foot xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Reims vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Reims 2 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Reims vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Clermont Foot part of?
Reims vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 36% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Reims and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Clermont Foot?
Record (4 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 2W.
What form are Reims and Clermont Foot in?
Reims (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.98) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (1.03x) against Reims's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
36%
2.82
30%
3.34
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Reims xG
Total xG
2.79
1.38
Clermont Foot xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
9%
11.23
9%
11.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Reims and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Reims and 1.38 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims's recent record stands at 12W 15D 12L from 39 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 14L across 39 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Reims against 1.51 for Clermont Foot. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reims have managed 8W 6D 5L from 19 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 8W 5D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.21 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
Clermont Foot
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 12W 15D 12L in their last 39 games (1.31 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 17W 8D 14L in their last 39 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Clermont Foot away?
Reims's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.58 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Reims or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Reims go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Clermont Foot won 4-1 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Reims
1
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Clermont Foot?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 4, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Clermont Foot?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 53%, Clermont Foot 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Reims) and 47% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Reims's games and 63% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Reims's recent games and 47% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Clermont Foot 2-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.40 xG and Clermont Foot 1.38 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Clermont Foot landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Clermont Foot attack 1.03 / defence 0.92, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Reims 36% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 35%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 46%, Clermont Foot 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.31 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.