Reims 0-1 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Reims take on Angers.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Delaune plays host to Reims versus Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims at Stade Auguste-Delaune this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Reims are significantly better at Stade Auguste-Delaune than their overall form suggests.
Angers's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Angers have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Angers are 0.80 PPG clear of Reims in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (1.30 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Reims lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 3–1 with Reims winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Reims half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Angers half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 66% versus Angers 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 56% | Angers 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.09 xG and Angers 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.800 / defence 1.173 | Angers attack 0.724 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.315. Data: 55 Reims games / 21 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 32% | Draw 34% | Angers 34%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Angers 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Reims dominate the H2H record, yet Angers are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Reims 80% | Angers 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 32% | Draw 34% | Angers 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Reims 1.09 / Angers 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.800 / def 1.173 | Angers attack 0.724 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Angers xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Angers kick off?
Reims vs Angers kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Angers?
Reims 0 - 1 Angers.
Where is Reims vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Angers part of?
Reims vs Angers is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 32% chance of winning, Angers a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Reims and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Angers?
Record (5 meetings): Reims 3W | Draws 1 | Angers 1W.
What form are Reims and Angers in?
Reims (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Angers (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.80) and Angers's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Angers's attack (0.72x) against Reims's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.10
34%
2.93
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Reims xG
Total xG
2.21
1.12
Angers xG
3.10
32%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
11%
8.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Reims and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Reims and 1.12 for Angers, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Reims have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 18W 15D 22L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Angers's form line: 25W 11D 19L from 55 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Reims against 1.56 for Angers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.26 PPG from 27 outings (9W 7D 11L).
On the road, Angers have gone 9W 7D 11L from 27 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reims are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.36 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reims have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Angers in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 18W 15D 22L in their last 55 games (1.25 PPG), while Angers have gone 25W 11D 19L in their last 55 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Angers away?
Reims's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.26 PPG; Angers away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Angers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Reims
1
Draws
2
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Angers?
From 6 meetings on record, Reims have won 3, Angers have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Reims 0-1 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Angers?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 59%, Angers 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Reims) and 33% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Reims have failed to score in 26% of games; Angers in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Angers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Reims's recent matches and 48% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Reims's recent games and 33% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Angers tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Angers in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Angers edge out Reims 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Reims 0-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.09 xG and Angers 1.12 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Reims fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.80 / defence 1.17 against Angers attack 0.72 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 32% | Draw 34% | Angers 34%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 56%, Angers 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Angers's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.25 PPG, Angers 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.