Paris Saint Germain 1-0 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris Saint Germain host Rennes at Parc des Princes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris Saint Germain stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Paris Saint Germain have posted 9W 1D 0L at Parc des Princes — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Princes. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Paris Saint Germain are significantly better at Parc des Princes than their overall form suggests.
Rennes — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Rennes have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Paris Saint Germain are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Paris Saint Germain, 1 for Rennes and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Rennes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Paris Saint Germain in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Rennes in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 61% versus Rennes 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 56% | Rennes 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.85 xG and Rennes 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.380 / defence 0.774 | Rennes attack 0.980 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.193. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.380 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Paris Saint Germain's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 23 Paris Saint Germain games / 23 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 59% | Draw 23% | Rennes 18%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Rennes 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Paris Saint Germain 40% | Rennes 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Friday 11 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 59% | Draw 23% | Rennes 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Paris Saint Germain 1.85 / Rennes 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.380 / def 0.774 | Rennes attack 0.980 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Rennes xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 11 February 2022 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes?
Paris Saint Germain 1 - 0 Rennes.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 59% chance of winning, Rennes a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Rennes?
Record (1 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 0W | Draws 0 | Rennes 1W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Rennes in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Rennes (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Paris Saint Germain's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Rennes's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Paris Saint Germain's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.30
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
2.75
0.90
Rennes xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
3%
36.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.90 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Paris Saint Germain have picked up 2.43 PPG on a 17W 5D 1L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rennes's form line: 11W 4D 8L from 23 games, 1.61 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rennes.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Paris Saint Germain have posted 2.82 PPG from 11 outings (10W 1D 0L).
On the road, Rennes have gone 3W 3D 5L from 11 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.87 scored and 0.91 conceded. Paris Saint Germain's scoring rate against Rennes's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rennes in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Rennes in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 17W 5D 1L in their last 23 games (2.43 PPG), while Rennes have gone 11W 4D 8L in their last 23 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Rennes away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.82 PPG; Rennes away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Rennes in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Paris Saint Germain and Rennes runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Dec 2025, when Paris Saint Germain won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris Saint Germain's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
4
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Rennes?
From 10 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, Rennes have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Rennes 3-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Rennes?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Rennes see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 46%, Rennes 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Paris Saint Germain) and 46% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Rennes in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Rennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 46% of Rennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Paris Saint Germain's recent games and 46% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Rennes tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Rennes in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Rennes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Rennes 1-0 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 1.85 xG and Rennes 0.90 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Paris Saint Germain fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Rennes landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.38 / defence 0.77 against Rennes attack 0.98 / defence 1.11, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 59% | Draw 23% | Rennes 18%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 56%, Rennes 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rennes's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.61. Form held, and they took the win. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.