Paris Saint Germain 4-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 37%, yet in-form Paris Saint Germain provide a compelling counter-argument — this Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot meet at Parc des Princes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Paris Saint Germain have collected 3.00 PPG across 4 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Paris Saint Germain have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot (all games): 2W 2D 0L across 4 Ligue 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Paris Saint Germain's favour (3.00 vs 2.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Paris Saint Germain 75% and Clermont Foot 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 75% | Clermont Foot 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.85 xG and Clermont Foot 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.252 / defence 1.211 | Clermont Foot attack 1.062 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.446. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Paris Saint Germain's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Paris Saint Germain games / 4 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 36% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 37%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Clermont Foot 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Clermont Foot at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Paris Saint Germain (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Paris Saint Germain 75% | Clermont Foot 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 36% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 74% | xG Paris Saint Germain 1.85 / Clermont Foot 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.252 / def 1.211 | Clermont Foot attack 1.062 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Clermont Foot xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot?
Paris Saint Germain 4 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 36% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 4W-0D-0L in 4 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-W-W-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Paris Saint Germain's attack at 1.25x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (1.06x) against Paris Saint Germain's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
36%
2.75
27%
3.75
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
3.71
1.86
Clermont Foot xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.79
Clean Sheet
16%
6.42
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
6%
17.63
6%
17.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.86 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris Saint Germain's recent record stands at 4W 0D 0L from 4 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 0L across 4 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 2.25 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Clermont Foot in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Early Season
Clermont Foot
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 games (3.00 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
Have Paris Saint Germain or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 1-6 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris Saint Germain have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Paris Saint Germain
2
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 75%, Clermont Foot 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Paris Saint Germain and 50% for Clermont Foot. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 50% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 50% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Clermont Foot 4-0 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 1.85 xG and Clermont Foot 1.86 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Clermont Foot landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.25 / defence 1.21 against Clermont Foot attack 1.06 / defence 1.22, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 36% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 37%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Paris Saint Germain win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 75%, Clermont Foot 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Paris Saint Germain scored 4 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.