Paris FC 3-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Paris FC face Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Paris FC welcome Le Havre to Stade Jean Bouin in Ligue 1 (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Paris FC stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Paris FC have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Le Havre — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Le Havre have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Paris FC) versus 1.20 (Le Havre). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Paris FC, 0 for Le Havre and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.4 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2025, ended Paris FC 0–0 Le Havre — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Paris FC in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Le Havre in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 52% versus Le Havre 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 48% | Le Havre 50%). Note also that Le Havre surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Paris FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.07 xG and Le Havre 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 0.720 / defence 1.334 | Le Havre attack 0.635 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.196. Paris FC's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.635 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Paris FC's defence rating of 1.334 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Le Havre's projected output up. Data: built from Paris FC's last 26 games and Le Havre's last 60.
Result probabilities: Paris FC 37% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 33%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.74 | Draw 3.33 | Le Havre 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Paris FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 27 | Venue: Stade Jean Bouin • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 37% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Paris FC 1.07 / Le Havre 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 0.720 / def 1.334 | Le Havre attack 0.635 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Le Havre xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris FC vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Paris FC vs Le Havre kick off?
Paris FC vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Stade Jean Bouin.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Le Havre?
Paris FC 3 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Paris FC vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Jean Bouin.
What competition is Paris FC vs Le Havre part of?
Paris FC vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 27) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 37% chance of winning, Le Havre a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Paris FC and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Paris FC vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Paris FC's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Paris FC's last 26 games and Le Havre's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
37%
2.74
30%
3.33
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.09
1.01
Le Havre xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris FC vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.01 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Paris FC's recent record stands at 27W 16D 17L from 60 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 31L across 60 games — 1.02 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris FC by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Paris FC have managed 16W 6D 7L from their last 29 home games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 8W 5D 16L across their last 29 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Paris FC are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.00 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
Paris FC (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris FC
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Paris FC vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Paris FC and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 27W 16D 17L in their last 60 games (1.62 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 16W 13D 31L in their last 60 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Le Havre away?
Paris FC's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.86 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Le Havre in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 2, Ligue 1. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Paris FC's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Paris FC
4
Draws
0
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris FC vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Le Havre?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris FC have won 2, Le Havre have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Paris FC 3-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Le Havre?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 52%, Le Havre 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Paris FC) and 41% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Le Havre in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris FC vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris FC and Le Havre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Paris FC's recent matches and 48% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Paris FC and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Paris FC's recent games and 41% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Paris FC's recent matches and 59% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Le Havre 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Le Havre 3-2 at Stade Jean Bouin, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.07 xG and Le Havre 1.01 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Paris FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Havre outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.33 against Le Havre attack 0.64 / defence 1.04, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 37% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 33%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 48%, Le Havre 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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