Paris FC 1-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris FC vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Jean Bouin plays host to Paris FC versus Auxerre in Ligue 1 (matchday 14). Kick-off: Saturday 29 November 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Paris FC (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Paris FC have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Paris FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Paris FC's favour (1.10 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Auxerre edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2024, ended Paris FC 0–2 Auxerre — a Auxerre win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Paris FC — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Auxerre — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 53% versus Auxerre 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 51% | Auxerre 55%). Note also that Auxerre surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Paris FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.72 xG and Auxerre 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 0.913 / defence 1.377 | Auxerre attack 0.795 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.202. Auxerre's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.32. Paris FC's defence rating of 1.377 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Auxerre's projected output up. Data: built from Paris FC's last 13 games and Auxerre's last 47.
Result probabilities: Paris FC 47% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 29%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.13 | Draw 4.24 | Auxerre 3.40. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.72 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Paris FC's last 10 home games and Auxerre's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Paris FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 14 | Venue: Stade Jean Bouin • Kick-off: Saturday 29 November 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 47% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Paris FC 1.72 / Auxerre 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 0.913 / def 1.377 | Auxerre attack 0.795 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Auxerre xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris FC vs Auxerre FAQs
What time does Paris FC vs Auxerre kick off?
Paris FC vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Stade Jean Bouin.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Paris FC 1 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Paris FC vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Jean Bouin.
What competition is Paris FC vs Auxerre part of?
Paris FC vs Auxerre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 14) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 47% chance of winning, Auxerre a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Paris FC and Auxerre will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Paris FC vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Paris FC's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.80x) against Paris FC's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from Paris FC's last 13 games and Auxerre's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.24
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Paris FC xG
Total xG
3.04
1.32
Auxerre xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
5%
18.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris FC vs Auxerre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.32 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Paris FC's recent record stands at 25W 8D 14L from 47 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 23L across 47 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris FC by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Auxerre heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Paris FC have managed 15W 3D 5L from their last 23 home games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 4W 4D 15L across their last 23 away games, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Paris FC are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.17 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
Paris FC (Home) vs Auxerre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris FC
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Paris FC vs Auxerre Form FAQs
What form are Paris FC and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 25W 8D 14L in their last 47 games (1.77 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 13W 11D 23L in their last 47 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Auxerre away?
Paris FC's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 2.09 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Auxerre in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 2, Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Paris FC
3
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris FC vs Auxerre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Auxerre?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris FC have won 2, Auxerre have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Auxerre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Auxerre 0-1 Paris FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 56%, Auxerre 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Paris FC) and 61% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Auxerre in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris FC vs Auxerre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris FC and Auxerre matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Paris FC's games and 56% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Paris FC and Auxerre matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Paris FC's matches and 61% of Auxerre's.
Do Paris FC and Auxerre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Paris FC's recent matches and 87% of Auxerre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris FC and Auxerre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Jean Bouin, Regular Season - 14, as Paris FC and Auxerre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.72 xG and Auxerre 1.32 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.38 against Auxerre attack 0.80 / defence 1.15, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 47% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 29%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 51%, Auxerre 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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