Nice 3-2 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Lyon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nice and Lyon meet at Allianz Riviera in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Nice (all games): 5W 2D 2L across 9 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.89 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.89 goals per game, with 0.56 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.56 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Riviera, Nice have gone 2W 2D 0L this season (4 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Riviera.
Lyon's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon away from home this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.89 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Nice — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lyon — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 22% versus Lyon 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 56% | Lyon 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.56 xG and Lyon 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.104 / defence 1.044 | Lyon attack 0.731 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.218. Data: 9 Nice games / 10 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 48% | Draw 33% | Lyon 19%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.08 | Draw 3.03 | Lyon 5.26. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nice if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Nice 50% | Lyon 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 48% | Draw 33% | Lyon 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Nice 1.56 / Lyon 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.104 / def 1.044 | Lyon attack 0.731 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Nice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Lyon xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Lyon kick off?
Nice vs Lyon kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Lyon?
Nice 3 - 2 Lyon.
Where is Nice vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Lyon part of?
Nice vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 48% chance of winning, Lyon a 19% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Nice and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Lyon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nice and Lyon in?
Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 0.56 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Lyon (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nice's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Lyon's attack (0.73x) against Nice's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
48%
2.07
33%
3.06
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Nice xG
Total xG
2.49
0.93
Lyon xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
4%
25.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nice and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Nice and 0.93 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nice come into this having played 9 games, going 5W 2D 2L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for Nice against 1.67 for Lyon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nice's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nice are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nice have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games; Lyon in 67%.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Lyon in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 games (1.89 PPG), while Lyon have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Lyon away?
Nice's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 2.00 PPG; Lyon away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Nice or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Lyon in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lyon won 4-1 on 1 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nice have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lyon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Nice
2
Draws
5
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Lyon?
From 10 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Lyon have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Lyon 2-0 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 50%, Lyon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Nice and 50% for Lyon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nice's recent matches and 50% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Nice's matches and 50% of Lyon's.
Do Nice and Lyon tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lyon in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nice edge out Lyon 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Lyon 3-2 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.56 xG and Lyon 0.93 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Nice beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lyon outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.10 / defence 1.04 against Lyon attack 0.73 / defence 1.14, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 48% | Draw 33% | Lyon 19%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 56%, Lyon 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Lyon's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.89 PPG, Lyon 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.