Nice 2-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nice at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nice vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Le Havre travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice in Ligue 1 (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Nice — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nice at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Le Havre stand at 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Nice are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Nice have won 1, Le Havre 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 May 2024, ended Nice 1–0 Le Havre — a Nice win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nice trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Le Havre trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 49% versus Le Havre 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 43% | Le Havre 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.82 xG and Le Havre 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.284 / defence 0.879 | Le Havre attack 0.875 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.306. Nice carry an above-average attack rating of 1.284 — their 1.82 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Nice's last 47 games and Le Havre's last 47.
Result probabilities: Nice 56% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 20%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.78 | Draw 4.18 | Le Havre 4.99. The model has a clear lean to Nice (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nice are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nice's last 10 home games and Le Havre's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nice 70% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 14 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 56% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Nice 1.82 / Le Havre 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.284 / def 0.879 | Le Havre attack 0.875 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Nice (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Le Havre xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nice vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Nice vs Le Havre kick off?
Nice vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Le Havre?
Nice 2 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Nice vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Le Havre part of?
Nice vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 14) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 56% chance of winning, Le Havre a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nice and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nice vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nice's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nice's last 47 games and Le Havre's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.18
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Nice xG
Total xG
2.83
1.00
Le Havre xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
21%
4.88
3%
30.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nice vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Nice and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Nice and 1.00 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nice come into this having played 47 games, going 20W 15D 12L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 0.94 PPG from 47 outings (11W 11D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Nice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Nice's home form reads 12W 7D 4L across their last 23 home games, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 0.78 points per game from their last 23 away games (3W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.94 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
Nice (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nice
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Nice vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Nice and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 20W 15D 12L in their last 47 games (1.60 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 11W 11D 25L in their last 47 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Le Havre away?
Nice's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.87 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Nice or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Le Havre in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 12 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nice's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nice
1
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Nice vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Le Havre?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Nice have won 3, Le Havre have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Nice and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2026: Nice 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Le Havre?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 48%, Le Havre 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Nice) and 44% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Le Havre in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nice vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nice and Le Havre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Nice's recent matches and 44% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nice and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Nice's recent games and 44% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Nice's recent matches and 61% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nice edge out Le Havre 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Le Havre 2-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.82 xG and Le Havre 1.00 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.28 / defence 0.88 against Le Havre attack 0.88 / defence 0.93, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 56% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 20%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 43%, Le Havre 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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