Nantes 1-2 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantes vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Toulouse travel to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau to take on Nantes. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 August 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantes stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nantes haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nantes have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Toulouse — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Toulouse haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Toulouse's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Toulouse — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Nantes, 0 for Toulouse and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nantes trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Toulouse trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 47% versus Toulouse 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 47% | Toulouse 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.14 xG and Toulouse 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.833 / defence 1.083 | Toulouse attack 0.977 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.242. Data: 38 Nantes games / 38 Toulouse games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Nantes 30% | Draw 32% | Toulouse 38%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Toulouse 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Nantes 30% | Toulouse 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 30% | Draw 32% | Toulouse 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Nantes 1.14 / Toulouse 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.833 / def 1.083 | Toulouse attack 0.977 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Toulouse xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Toulouse kick off?
Nantes vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Toulouse?
Nantes 1 - 2 Toulouse.
Where is Nantes vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Toulouse part of?
Nantes vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 30% chance of winning, Toulouse a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nantes and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Toulouse?
Record (2 meetings): Nantes 1W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 0W.
What form are Nantes and Toulouse in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Nantes (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nantes's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
30%
3.34
32%
3.15
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.45
1.31
Toulouse xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
8%
12.44
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nantes and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Nantes and 1.31 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nantes's recent record stands at 7W 15D 16L from 38 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. Nantes haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 16L across 38 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five. Toulouse haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nantes on 0.95 PPG, Toulouse on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 5W 8D 6L from 19 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Toulouse's away record stands at 7W 3D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Nantes are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.34 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Pre-Season
Toulouse
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 7W 15D 16L in their last 38 games (0.95 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.21 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantes and Toulouse runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Nantes's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Nantes
4
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Toulouse?
From 7 meetings on record, Nantes have won 2, Toulouse have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Toulouse 2-2 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Toulouse?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 42%, Toulouse 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Nantes) and 68% (Toulouse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 32%; Nantes have failed to score in 42% of games; Toulouse in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Nantes's recent matches and 53% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Nantes's matches and 68% of Toulouse's.
Do Nantes and Toulouse tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Toulouse edge out Nantes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Nantes 1-2 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.14 xG and Toulouse 1.31 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Toulouse attack 0.98 / defence 0.92, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 30% | Draw 32% | Toulouse 38%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 47%, Toulouse 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 0.95 PPG, Toulouse 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.