Nantes 0-3 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantes vs Rennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 30 as Nantes welcome Rennes to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nantes have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Nantes's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 games at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this season.
Rennes — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rennes away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nantes at 1.20 PPG versus Rennes's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Rennes have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Nantes.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with Rennes winning.
It is worth noting that Rennes have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Nantes in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Rennes in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 46% versus Rennes 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | Rennes 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 0.91 xG and Rennes 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.719 / defence 1.266 | Rennes attack 0.842 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.293. Nantes's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Nantes games / 67 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 24% | Draw 30% | Rennes 47%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Rennes 2.13. Rennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 30% | Rennes 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 24% | Draw 30% | Rennes 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Nantes 0.91 / Rennes 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.719 / def 1.266 | Rennes attack 0.842 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Rennes (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Rennes xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Rennes kick off?
Nantes vs Rennes kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Rennes?
Nantes 0 - 3 Rennes.
Where is Nantes vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Rennes part of?
Nantes vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 24% chance of winning, Rennes a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Nantes and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Rennes?
Record (5 meetings): Nantes 1W | Draws 0 | Rennes 4W.
What form are Nantes and Rennes in?
Nantes (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Rennes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nantes's attack at 0.72x the league average against Rennes's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
24%
4.22
30%
3.36
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.29
1.38
Rennes xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
6%
16.73
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.0 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Nantes and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Nantes and 1.38 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nantes's recent record stands at 16W 19D 32L from 67 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Rennes, meanwhile, have gone 31W 14D 22L across 67 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rennes by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 8W 10D 15L from 33 games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rennes's away record stands at 9W 11D 13L across 33 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Nantes are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.64 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Current Season
Rennes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Rennes in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 16W 19D 32L in their last 67 games (1.00 PPG), while Rennes have gone 31W 14D 22L in their last 67 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Rennes away?
Rennes's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.03 PPG; Rennes away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2022, when Rennes won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nantes's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nantes
1
Draws
7
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Rennes?
From 10 meetings on record, Nantes have won 2, Rennes have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Rennes 2-1 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Rennes?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 42%, Rennes 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nantes) and 46% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 42% of games; Rennes in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Rennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Nantes's recent matches and 61% of Rennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Nantes's recent games and 46% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Rennes tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Rennes in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rennes run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nantes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Nantes 0-3 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 0.91 xG and Rennes 1.38 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nantes fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Rennes outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.72 / defence 1.27 against Rennes attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 24% | Draw 30% | Rennes 47%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Rennes 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rennes's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.