Nantes 0-2 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nantes face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nantes and Paris Saint Germain meet at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nantes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nantes have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Paris Saint Germain have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Paris Saint Germain arrive in superior form — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Paris Saint Germain, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Paris Saint Germain have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Nantes — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Paris Saint Germain — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 48% versus Paris Saint Germain 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 48% | Paris Saint Germain 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 0.76 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.787 / defence 1.102 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.460 / defence 0.696. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.091. Nantes's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Paris Saint Germain's defence strength of 0.696 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.460 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Nantes games / 59 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 14% | Draw 27% | Paris Saint Germain 59%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 7.14 | Draw 3.70 | Paris Saint Germain 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Nantes 40% | Paris Saint Germain 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 14% | Draw 27% | Paris Saint Germain 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Nantes 0.76 / Paris Saint Germain 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.787 / def 1.102 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.460 / def 0.696 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Paris Saint Germain xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Nantes 0 - 2 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 14% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 59% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Nantes and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (5 meetings): Nantes 1W | Draws 0 | Paris Saint Germain 4W.
What form are Nantes and Paris Saint Germain in?
Nantes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nantes's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.46x) against Nantes's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-2 (12.5%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
14%
7.25
27%
3.72
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.51
1.76
Paris Saint Germain xG
7.25
14%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
17%
5.79
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
2%
41.95
28%
3.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Nantes and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Nantes and 1.76 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Nantes have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 13W 19D 27L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain's form line: 42W 9D 8L from 59 games, 2.29 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nantes.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nantes have posted 1.17 PPG from 29 outings (8W 10D 11L).
On the road, Paris Saint Germain have gone 21W 5D 3L from 29 away games — 2.34 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nantes are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.37 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 13W 19D 27L in their last 59 games (0.98 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 42W 9D 8L in their last 59 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.17 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.34 PPG.
Have Nantes or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 0-3 on 3 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nantes
2
Draws
7
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Paris Saint Germain?
From 10 meetings on record, Nantes have won 1, Paris Saint Germain have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 66% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 41%, Paris Saint Germain 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Nantes) and 66% (Paris Saint Germain). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain in 41%; Nantes have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Paris Saint Germain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Nantes's recent matches and 55% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Nantes's matches and 66% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Nantes and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nantes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Nantes 0-2 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 0.76 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.76 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.46 / defence 0.70, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 14% | Draw 27% | Paris Saint Germain 59%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 48%, Paris Saint Germain 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.