Nantes 0-2 Metz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Nantes at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantes vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Nantes welcome Metz to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nantes — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes's home record at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Metz have recorded 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Metz have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Nantes carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Nantes, 1 for Metz and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with Metz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nantes in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Metz in-play and half-time data (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 46% versus Metz 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | Metz 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.26 xG and Metz 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.754 / defence 1.096 | Metz attack 0.752 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.160. Nantes's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Nantes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Nantes games / 23 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 41% | Draw 33% | Metz 26%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Metz 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nantes are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nantes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 30% | Metz 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 41% | Draw 33% | Metz 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Nantes 1.26 / Metz 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.754 / def 1.096 | Metz attack 0.752 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Nantes (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Metz xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Metz kick off?
Nantes vs Metz kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Metz?
Nantes 0 - 2 Metz.
Where is Nantes vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Metz part of?
Nantes vs Metz is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 41% chance of winning, Metz a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Nantes and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Metz?
Record (3 meetings): Nantes 1W | Draws 1 | Metz 1W.
What form are Nantes and Metz in?
Nantes (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Metz (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nantes's attack at 0.75x the league average against Metz's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
41%
2.42
33%
3.07
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.21
0.96
Metz xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
7%
13.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Nantes and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Nantes and 0.96 for Metz, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Nantes have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 19D 28L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz's form line: 24W 17D 20L from 61 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Metz are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nantes.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nantes have posted 1.13 PPG from 31 outings (8W 11D 12L).
On the road, Metz have gone 13W 7D 11L from 31 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Nantes are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.31 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Metz in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 14W 19D 28L in their last 61 games (1.00 PPG), while Metz have gone 24W 17D 20L in their last 61 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Metz away?
Metz's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.13 PPG; Metz away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Nantes or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Metz in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantes and Metz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nantes's record when hosting Metz specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Nantes
2
Draws
3
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Nantes have won 1, Metz have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Metz 0-0 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Metz?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Metz see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 42%, Metz 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Nantes) and 45% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 42% of games; Metz in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Nantes's recent matches and 52% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Nantes's recent games and 45% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Metz tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Metz in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Metz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nantes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Nantes 0-2 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.26 xG and Metz 0.96 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nantes fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Metz outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.75 / defence 1.10 against Metz attack 0.75 / defence 1.23, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 41% | Draw 33% | Metz 26%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Metz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Metz 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Metz's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Metz arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Metz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.