Nantes 1-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lyon (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Nantes face Lyon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nantes host Lyon at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau in Ligue 1 (matchday 19). Kick-off is Sunday 26 January 2025 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Nantes stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Nantes at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lyon — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lyon's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lyon — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Lyon have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Nantes.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended Nantes 0–2 Lyon — a Lyon win.
Lyon have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Nantes trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lyon trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 54% versus Lyon 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | Lyon 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.20 xG and Lyon 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.855 / defence 1.069 | Lyon attack 1.099 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.288. Data: built from Nantes's last 52 games and Lyon's last 52.
Result probabilities: Nantes 27% | Draw 31% | Lyon 42%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 3.65 | Draw 3.26 | Lyon 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lyon as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nantes 60% (last 10 home games) | Lyon 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 19 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 27% | Draw 31% | Lyon 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Nantes 1.20 / Lyon 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.855 / def 1.069 | Lyon attack 1.099 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Lyon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Lyon xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nantes vs Lyon FAQs
What time does Nantes vs Lyon kick off?
Nantes vs Lyon kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Lyon?
Nantes 1 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Nantes vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Lyon part of?
Nantes vs Lyon is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 19) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 27% chance of winning, Lyon a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Nantes and Lyon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nantes vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nantes's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nantes's last 52 games and Lyon's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
27%
3.65
31%
3.26
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.71
1.51
Lyon xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
6%
16.56
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nantes vs Lyon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nantes and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Nantes and 1.51 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nantes come into this having played 52 games, going 12W 14D 26L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.58 PPG from 52 outings (24W 10D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Lyon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Nantes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nantes's home form reads 5W 6D 14L across their last 25 home games, a 0.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.60 points per game from their last 25 away games (12W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nantes are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.50 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Lyon
Blended
Nantes (Home) vs Lyon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nantes
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Nantes vs Lyon Form FAQs
What form are Nantes and Lyon in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 12W 14D 26L in their last 52 games (0.96 PPG), while Lyon have gone 24W 10D 18L in their last 52 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 0.84 PPG; Lyon away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Nantes or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Lyon in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lyon have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Nov 2025, when Lyon won Lyon 3-0 Nantes.
Nantes's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Nantes
3
Draws
7
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Nantes vs Lyon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Lyon?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Nantes have won 0, Lyon have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Lyon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Nantes 0-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 52%, Lyon 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Nantes) and 60% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Lyon in 32%; Nantes have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nantes vs Lyon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nantes and Lyon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Nantes's recent matches and 52% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nantes and Lyon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Nantes's recent games and 60% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Lyon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Nantes's recent matches and 72% of Lyon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nantes and Lyon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes and Lyon finished level at 1-1 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.20 xG and Lyon 1.51 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against Lyon attack 1.10 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 27% | Draw 31% | Lyon 42%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Lyon 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lyon's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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