Monaco 2-2 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monaco at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monaco vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Louis II plays host to Monaco versus Lille in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 19 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Monaco (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Monaco have posted 3W 1D 2L at Stade Louis II — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Lille have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Monaco against 1.40 for Lille. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 46% versus Lille 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 46% | Lille 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.56 xG and Lille 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.066 / defence 1.123 | Lille attack 0.799 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.187. Data: 13 Monaco games / 13 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 46% | Draw 32% | Lille 22%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Lille 4.55. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Monaco 50% | Lille 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 46% | Draw 32% | Lille 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Monaco 1.56 / Lille 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.066 / def 1.123 | Lille attack 0.799 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Monaco (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Lille xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Lille kick off?
Monaco vs Lille kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 19 November 2021 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Lille?
Monaco 2 - 2 Lille.
Where is Monaco vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Lille part of?
Monaco vs Lille is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 46% chance of winning, Lille a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Monaco and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Lille?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monaco and Lille in?
Monaco (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Lille (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Monaco's attack rating (1.07) and Lille's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lille's attack (0.80x) against Monaco's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
46%
2.20
32%
3.12
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.63
1.06
Lille xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
5%
21.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Monaco and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Monaco and 1.06 for Lille, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Monaco have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 5W 3D 5L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille's form line: 4W 4D 5L from 13 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Monaco against 1.23 for Lille. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Monaco have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
On the road, Lille have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monaco are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.23 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Lille in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while Lille have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Lille away?
Monaco's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.67 PPG; Lille away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Lille go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Monaco
3
Draws
5
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Monaco have won 2, Lille have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Monaco 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 50%, Lille 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Monaco) and 50% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Monaco have failed to score in 33% of games; Lille in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Monaco's games and 67% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monaco vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Monaco's recent games and 50% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Lille tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lille in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco and Lille share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 14, as Monaco and Lille drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.56 xG and Lille 1.06 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lille outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.07 / defence 1.12 against Lille attack 0.80 / defence 1.15, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 46% | Draw 32% | Lille 22%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 46%, Lille 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Lille's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.38 PPG, Lille 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Monaco (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lille (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.