Metz 2-5 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Monaco (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Metz face Monaco.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 27 as Metz welcome Monaco to Stade Saint-Symphorien. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Metz stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Stade Saint-Symphorien this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Monaco have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monaco's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Monaco are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Monaco, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Metz.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Monaco winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Monaco have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Metz in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Monaco in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 45% versus Monaco 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 41% | Monaco 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 0.97 xG and Monaco 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.679 / defence 1.038 | Monaco attack 1.325 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.262. Metz's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Monaco have an above-average attack strength of 1.325 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Metz games / 64 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 20% | Draw 25% | Monaco 55%. Fair-value odds: Metz 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | Monaco 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Monaco (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Metz 30% | Monaco 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 20% | Draw 25% | Monaco 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Metz 0.97 / Monaco 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.679 / def 1.038 | Monaco attack 1.325 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Monaco (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Monaco xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Monaco kick off?
Metz vs Monaco kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Monaco?
Metz 2 - 5 Monaco.
Where is Metz vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Monaco part of?
Metz vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 20% chance of winning, Monaco a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Metz and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Monaco?
Record (3 meetings): Metz 0W | Draws 0 | Monaco 3W.
What form are Metz and Monaco in?
Metz (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Monaco (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Metz's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
20%
4.95
25%
3.96
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Metz xG
Total xG
2.71
1.74
Monaco xG
4.95
20%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
4%
28.04
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.6 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Metz and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Metz and 1.74 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Monaco?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Metz have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 26W 17D 21L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco's form line: 32W 15D 17L from 64 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Metz on 1.48 PPG, Monaco on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Metz have posted 1.48 PPG from 31 outings (12W 10D 9L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 16W 9D 6L from 31 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Metz are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.83 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 62%.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Monaco in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 26W 17D 21L in their last 64 games (1.48 PPG), while Monaco have gone 32W 15D 17L in their last 64 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.48 PPG; Monaco away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Metz or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Monaco in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Monaco have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when Monaco won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Metz's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Metz
0
Draws
6
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Monaco?
From 6 meetings on record, Metz have won 0, Monaco have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Metz 1-2 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 39%, Monaco 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Metz) and 64% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Metz have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Monaco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Metz's recent matches and 64% of Monaco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Metz's recent games and 64% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Monaco tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Monaco in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monaco run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Metz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Metz 2-5 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 0.97 xG and Monaco 1.74 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Metz beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Monaco outscored their 1.74 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.68 / defence 1.04 against Monaco attack 1.32 / defence 1.07, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 20% | Draw 25% | Monaco 55%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 41%, Monaco 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Monaco's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 1.48 PPG, Monaco 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.