Metz 2-5 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Monaco (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Metz face Monaco.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Metz welcome Monaco to Stade Saint-Symphorien in Ligue 1 (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 30 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Metz stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Metz's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Monaco have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Monaco's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Monaco are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Monaco have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Metz. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Metz 1–2 Monaco — a Monaco win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Monaco have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Metz in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Monaco in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 45% versus Monaco 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 41% | Monaco 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 0.97 xG and Monaco 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.679 / defence 1.038 | Monaco attack 1.325 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.262. Metz's attack rating of 0.679 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Monaco have an above-average attack rating of 1.325, which lifts their away xG to 1.74. Data: built from Metz's last 26 games and Monaco's last 64.
Result probabilities: Metz 20% | Draw 25% | Monaco 55%. Fair-value odds: Metz 4.95 | Draw 3.96 | Monaco 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Monaco (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Metz 30% (last 10 home games) | Monaco 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 27 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 20% | Draw 25% | Monaco 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Metz 0.97 / Monaco 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.679 / def 1.038 | Monaco attack 1.325 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Monaco (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Monaco xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Metz vs Monaco FAQs
What time does Metz vs Monaco kick off?
Metz vs Monaco kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Monaco?
Metz 2 - 5 Monaco.
Where is Metz vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Monaco part of?
Metz vs Monaco is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 27) (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 20% chance of winning, Monaco a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Metz and Monaco will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Metz vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Metz's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Metz's last 26 games and Monaco's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
20%
4.95
25%
3.96
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Metz xG
Total xG
2.71
1.74
Monaco xG
4.95
20%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
4%
28.04
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.6 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Metz vs Monaco Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Metz and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Metz and 1.74 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Monaco?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Metz have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 26W 17D 21L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Monaco's form line: 32W 15D 17L from 64 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Metz on 1.48 PPG, Monaco on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Metz have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 31 home games (12W 10D 9L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 16W 9D 6L from their last 31 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Metz are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.83 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 62%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Monaco
Blended
Metz (Home) vs Monaco (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Metz
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Metz vs Monaco Form FAQs
What form are Metz and Monaco in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 26W 17D 21L in their last 64 games (1.48 PPG), while Monaco have gone 32W 15D 17L in their last 64 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.48 PPG; Monaco away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Metz or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Monaco in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Monaco have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Dec 2021, when Monaco won Monaco 4-0 Metz.
Metz's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Metz
0
Draws
6
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Metz vs Monaco H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Monaco?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Metz have won 0, Monaco have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Monaco last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Metz 1-2 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 39%, Monaco 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Metz) and 64% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Metz have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Metz vs Monaco Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Metz and Monaco matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Metz's recent matches and 64% of Monaco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Metz and Monaco matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Metz's recent games and 64% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Monaco matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Metz's recent matches and 74% of Monaco's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monaco run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Metz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Metz 2-5 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 0.97 xG and Monaco 1.74 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Metz beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Monaco outscored their 1.74 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.68 / defence 1.04 against Monaco attack 1.32 / defence 1.07, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 20% | Draw 25% | Monaco 55%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 41%, Monaco 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Monaco's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 1.48 PPG, Monaco 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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