Metz 1-2 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metz vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Lille travel to Stade Saint-Symphorien to take on Metz. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Metz have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Metz's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stade Saint-Symphorien this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Lille — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lille's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Metz 1.30 PPG, Lille 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Metz have won 0, Lille 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Lille winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Metz in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Lille in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 47% versus Lille 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 43% | Lille 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.06 xG and Lille 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.862 / defence 1.209 | Lille attack 0.754 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.334. Data: 30 Metz games / 68 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 31% | Draw 30% | Lille 39%. Fair-value odds: Metz 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Lille 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lille as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Metz 50% | Lille 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 31% | Draw 30% | Lille 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Metz 1.06 / Lille 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.862 / def 1.209 | Lille attack 0.754 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Lille (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Lille xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Lille kick off?
Metz vs Lille kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Lille?
Metz 1 - 2 Lille.
Where is Metz vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Lille part of?
Metz vs Lille is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 31% chance of winning, Lille a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Metz and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Lille?
Record (3 meetings): Metz 0W | Draws 2 | Lille 1W.
What form are Metz and Lille in?
Metz (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Lille (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Metz's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
31%
3.19
30%
3.39
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Metz xG
Total xG
2.27
1.22
Lille xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Metz and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Metz and 1.22 for Lille, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Metz have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 28W 17D 23L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Lille's form line: 33W 20D 15L from 68 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Metz on 1.49 PPG, Lille on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Metz have posted 1.48 PPG from 33 outings (13W 10D 10L).
On the road, Lille have gone 9W 12D 12L from 33 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Metz are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.59 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Lille in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 28W 17D 23L in their last 68 games (1.49 PPG), while Lille have gone 33W 20D 15L in their last 68 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Lille away?
Metz's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.48 PPG; Lille away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Metz or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Lille in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lille won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Metz's record when hosting Lille specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Metz
3
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Lille?
From 6 meetings on record, Metz have won 0, Lille have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Metz 0-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 42%, Lille 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Metz) and 36% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Lille in 33%; Metz have failed to score in 30% of games; Lille in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Metz's recent matches and 52% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Metz's recent games and 36% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Lille tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Lille in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Metz 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Metz 1-2 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.06 xG and Lille 1.22 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.86 / defence 1.21 against Lille attack 0.75 / defence 0.92, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 31% | Draw 30% | Lille 39%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 43%, Lille 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Lille's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 1.49 PPG, Lille 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lille (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.