Marseille 0-1 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Marseille at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Marseille vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Orange Vélodrome plays host to Marseille versus Monaco in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 6 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Marseille's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Marseille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Marseille's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade Orange Vélodrome this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Orange Vélodrome this season.
Monaco have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monaco's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Marseille, 0 for Monaco and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Marseille winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Marseille half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Marseille 50% versus Monaco 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Marseille 35% | Monaco 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Marseille 1.35 xG and Monaco 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Marseille attack 1.029 / defence 1.269 | Monaco attack 0.803 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.148. Data: 26 Marseille games / 26 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Marseille 41% | Draw 27% | Monaco 32%. Fair-value odds: Marseille 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Monaco 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Marseille at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Marseille if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Marseille 60% | Monaco 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Marseille vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Orange Vélodrome • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Marseille 41% | Draw 27% | Monaco 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Marseille 1.35 / Monaco 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Marseille attack 1.029 / def 1.269 | Monaco attack 0.803 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Marseille (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Marseille xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Monaco xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Marseille vs Monaco kick off?
Marseille vs Monaco kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Stade Orange Vélodrome.
What was the final score in Marseille vs Monaco?
Marseille 0 - 1 Monaco.
Where is Marseille vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade Orange Vélodrome.
What competition is Marseille vs Monaco part of?
Marseille vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Marseille vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Marseille a 41% chance of winning, Monaco a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Marseille and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Marseille vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Monaco?
Record (1 meetings): Marseille 1W | Draws 0 | Monaco 0W.
What form are Marseille and Monaco in?
Marseille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Monaco (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Marseille's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (0.80x) against Marseille's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
41%
2.44
27%
3.74
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Marseille xG
Total xG
2.52
1.17
Monaco xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
8%
12.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Marseille vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Marseille and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Marseille and 1.17 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Marseille vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Marseille have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 13W 8D 5L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Marseille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco's form line: 10W 8D 8L from 26 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.81 PPG for Marseille against 1.46 for Monaco. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Marseille have posted 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 3W 4D 5L from 12 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Marseille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Marseille are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.50 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Marseille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Marseille
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Marseille and Monaco in coming into this match?
Marseille have gone 13W 8D 5L in their last 26 games (1.81 PPG), while Monaco have gone 10W 8D 8L in their last 26 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Marseille at home or Monaco away?
Marseille's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Marseille at home: 1.58 PPG; Monaco away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Marseille or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Marseille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Monaco in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 3-0 on 12 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Marseille have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Marseille
2
Draws
4
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Monaco?
From 10 meetings on record, Marseille have won 4, Monaco have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Marseille and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Monaco 2-1 Marseille.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Marseille see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Marseille 58%, Monaco 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Marseille) and 42% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Marseille keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Monaco in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Marseille home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Marseille play Monaco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Marseille's recent matches and 50% of Monaco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Marseille vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Marseille's recent games and 42% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Marseille and Monaco tend to score early?
Marseille have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Monaco in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monaco defy the odds to beat Marseille 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Marseille 0-1 at Stade Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 1.35 xG and Monaco 1.17 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Marseille fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.03 / defence 1.27 against Monaco attack 0.80 / defence 1.18, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Marseille 41% | Draw 27% | Monaco 32%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Monaco win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 35%, Monaco 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Marseille's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Monaco's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Marseille 1.81 PPG, Monaco 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Marseille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Monaco (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.