Lyon 1-0 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lyon face Nantes.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Nantes travel to Groupama Stadium to take on Lyon in Ligue 1 (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lyon — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lyon's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Nantes stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Nantes away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lyon 1.10 PPG, Nantes 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Lyon have won 2, Nantes 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Mar 2023, ended Lyon 1–1 Nantes — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lyon in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Nantes in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 61% versus Nantes 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 59% | Nantes 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.78 xG and Nantes 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.023 / defence 1.321 | Nantes attack 0.940 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.032. Nantes's defence rating of 1.280 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lyon's projected output up. Lyon's defence rating of 1.321 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nantes's projected output up. Data: built from Lyon's last 54 games and Nantes's last 54.
Result probabilities: Lyon 47% | Draw 27% | Nantes 26%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.12 | Draw 3.69 | Nantes 3.88. Lyon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lyon's last 10 home games and Nantes's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lyon 60% (last 10 home games) | Nantes 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 17 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 47% | Draw 27% | Nantes 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Lyon 1.78 / Nantes 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.023 / def 1.321 | Nantes attack 0.940 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Lyon (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Nantes xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lyon vs Nantes FAQs
What time does Lyon vs Nantes kick off?
Lyon vs Nantes kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Wednesday 20 December 2023 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Nantes?
Lyon 1 - 0 Nantes.
Where is Lyon vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Nantes part of?
Lyon vs Nantes is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 17) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 47% chance of winning, Nantes a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lyon and Nantes will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lyon vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lyon's attack rating (1.02) and Nantes's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lyon's last 54 games and Nantes's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.69
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Lyon xG
Total xG
3.06
1.28
Nantes xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
4%
22.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lyon vs Nantes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Lyon and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Lyon and 1.28 for Nantes, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon's recent record stands at 21W 12D 21L from 54 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Nantes, meanwhile, have gone 12W 18D 24L across 54 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lyon on 1.39 PPG, Nantes on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lyon have managed 10W 8D 8L from their last 26 home games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantes's away record stands at 4W 7D 15L across their last 26 away games, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.04 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Nantes
Blended
Lyon (Home) vs Nantes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lyon
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Lyon vs Nantes Form FAQs
What form are Lyon and Nantes in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 21W 12D 21L in their last 54 games (1.39 PPG), while Nantes have gone 12W 18D 24L in their last 54 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Nantes away?
Lyon's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.46 PPG; Nantes away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lyon have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Nov 2025, when Lyon won Lyon 3-0 Nantes.
Lyon's record when hosting Nantes specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Lyon
3
Draws
0
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Lyon vs Nantes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Nantes?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lyon have won 7, Nantes have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Nantes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Nantes 0-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Nantes?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 62%, Nantes 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lyon) and 54% (Nantes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nantes in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lyon vs Nantes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lyon and Nantes matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Lyon's games and 54% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lyon and Nantes matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Lyon's matches and 54% of Nantes's.
Do Lyon and Nantes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Lyon's recent matches and 58% of Nantes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Nantes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Nantes 1-0 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.78 xG and Nantes 1.28 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nantes landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.02 / defence 1.32 against Nantes attack 0.94 / defence 1.28, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 47% | Draw 27% | Nantes 26%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 59%, Nantes 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Nantes's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.39 PPG, Nantes 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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