Lyon 3-1 Monaco – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lyon at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lyon vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lyon host Monaco at Groupama Stadium in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 May 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lyon have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Lyon's home record at Groupama Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Groupama Stadium this season.
Monaco — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Monaco's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Lyon) versus 1.50 (Monaco). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lyon, 2 for Monaco and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Monaco winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lyon in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Monaco in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lyon 68% and Monaco 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 58% | Monaco 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.82 xG and Monaco 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.226 / defence 1.117 | Monaco attack 1.219 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.213. Monaco have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 73 Lyon games / 73 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 42% | Draw 23% | Monaco 35%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Monaco 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 70% | Monaco 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 42% | Draw 23% | Monaco 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Lyon 1.82 / Monaco 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.226 / def 1.117 | Monaco attack 1.219 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Lyon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Monaco xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Monaco kick off?
Lyon vs Monaco kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Monaco?
Lyon 3 - 1 Monaco.
Where is Lyon vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Monaco part of?
Lyon vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 42% chance of winning, Monaco a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Lyon and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Monaco?
Record (3 meetings): Lyon 1W | Draws 0 | Monaco 2W.
What form are Lyon and Monaco in?
Lyon (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Monaco (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lyon's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
42%
2.39
23%
4.29
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Lyon xG
Total xG
3.47
1.65
Monaco xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
8%
12.47
6%
17.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Lyon and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Lyon and 1.65 for Monaco, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon come into this having played 73 games, going 33W 19D 21L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Monaco sit at 1.84 PPG from 73 outings (39W 17D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lyon on 1.62 PPG, Monaco on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lyon's home form reads 19W 10D 7L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Monaco have taken 1.78 points per game from 36 outings (18W 10D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.82 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Current Season
Monaco
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Monaco in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 33W 19D 21L in their last 73 games (1.62 PPG), while Monaco have gone 39W 17D 17L in their last 73 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Monaco away?
Lyon's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.86 PPG; Monaco away: 1.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lyon's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lyon
0
Draws
5
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Monaco?
From 10 meetings on record, Lyon have won 5, Monaco have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Lyon 1-2 Monaco.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lyon at 72%, Monaco at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lyon) and 56% (Monaco). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Lyon's games and 58% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Lyon's matches and 56% of Monaco's.
Do Lyon and Monaco tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Monaco in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lyon cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Monaco.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Monaco 3-1 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.82 xG and Monaco 1.65 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lyon beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.23 / defence 1.12 against Monaco attack 1.22 / defence 1.05, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 42% | Draw 23% | Monaco 35%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 58%, Monaco 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Monaco's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.62 PPG, Monaco 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm. Monaco (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.