Lille 1-1 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Nantes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lille and Nantes meet at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lille have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille have gone 3W 2D 1L this season (6 games, 1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lille are significantly better at Stade Pierre-Mauroy than their overall form suggests.
Nantes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes's away record: 1W 2D 4L from 7 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lille have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Nantes in 71%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Lille — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Nantes — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lille 71% and Nantes 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 57% | Nantes 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.54 xG and Nantes 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.936 / defence 1.128 | Nantes attack 0.829 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.192. Nantes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Lille's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Lille games / 14 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 44% | Draw 31% | Nantes 25%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Nantes 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Lille 67% | Nantes 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 44% | Draw 31% | Nantes 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Lille 1.54 / Nantes 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.936 / def 1.128 | Nantes attack 0.829 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Lille (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Nantes xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Nantes kick off?
Lille vs Nantes kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Nantes?
Lille 1 - 1 Nantes.
Where is Lille vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Nantes part of?
Lille vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 44% chance of winning, Nantes a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lille and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Nantes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lille and Nantes in?
Lille (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Nantes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lille's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Nantes's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Nantes's attack (0.83x) against Lille's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
44%
2.25
31%
3.24
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Lille xG
Total xG
2.66
1.11
Nantes xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
5%
18.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Lille and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Lille and 1.11 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lille come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 5D 5L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nantes sit at 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (5W 3D 6L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Lille against 1.29 for Nantes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lille's home form reads 3W 2D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Lille are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nantes have taken 0.67 points per game from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nantes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lille are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.36 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Nantes in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Nantes have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Nantes away?
Lille's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.83 PPG; Nantes away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Lille have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nantes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lille
3
Draws
1
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Nantes?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 6, Nantes have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Lille 1-0 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Nantes?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Lille, 67% for Nantes — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lille) and 50% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Nantes in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Nantes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lille's games and 67% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lille's recent games and 50% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Nantes tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nantes in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille and Nantes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille and Nantes finished level at 1-1 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.54 xG and Nantes 1.11 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.94 / defence 1.13 against Nantes attack 0.83 / defence 1.27, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 44% | Draw 31% | Nantes 25%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 57%, Nantes 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Nantes's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.21 PPG, Nantes 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nantes (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.