Lille vs Le Havre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lille face Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lille and Le Havre meet at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Lille (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this season.
Le Havre have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Lille's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Le Havre's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, Lille are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Lille a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lille — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Le Havre — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 39% versus Le Havre 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lille 39% | Le Havre 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.37 xG and Le Havre 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.995 / defence 1.014 | Le Havre attack 0.896 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Data: 36 Lille games / 36 Le Havre games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lille 38% | Draw 31% | Le Havre 31%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Le Havre 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lille 50% | Le Havre 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 38% | Draw 31% | Le Havre 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Lille 1.37 / Le Havre 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.995 / def 1.014 | Le Havre attack 0.896 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Lille (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Le Havre xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Le Havre kick off?
Lille vs Le Havre is scheduled to kick off at 15:15 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Where is Lille vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Le Havre part of?
Lille vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 38% chance of winning, Le Havre a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lille and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Le Havre?
Record (6 meetings): Lille 4W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Lille and Le Havre in?
Lille (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Le Havre (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lille's attack rating (0.99) and Le Havre's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.90x) against Lille's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
38%
2.62
31%
3.23
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Lille xG
Total xG
2.58
1.22
Le Havre xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
8%
12.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Lille and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Lille and 1.22 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lille's recent record stands at 19W 8D 9L from 36 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 7W 15D 14L across 36 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lille by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lille have managed 8W 6D 4L from 18 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 2W 7D 9L across 18 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lille are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.92 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 19W 8D 9L in their last 36 games (1.81 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 7W 15D 14L in their last 36 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Le Havre away?
Lille's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.67 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Lille or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Le Havre in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won 3-0 on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Lille
1
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Lille have won 4, Le Havre have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lille 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Le Havre?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lille see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 50%, Le Havre 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Lille and 22% for Le Havre.
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Le Havre in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lille's recent matches and 44% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lille vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lille's recent games and 22% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Le Havre tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.