Lens 1-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lens at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lens vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Le Havre travel to Stade Bollaert-Delelis to take on Lens in Ligue 1 (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lens — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Lens have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Le Havre stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Le Havre's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Lens are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Lens have won 0, Le Havre 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2023, ended Lens 0–0 Le Havre — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lens in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Le Havre in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lens 49% versus Le Havre 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lens 51% | Le Havre 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lens 1.86 xG and Le Havre 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lens attack 1.158 / defence 1.008 | Le Havre attack 0.709 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.311. Le Havre's defence rating of 1.230 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lens's projected output up. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.709 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Lens's last 65 games and Le Havre's last 27.
Result probabilities: Lens 59% | Draw 23% | Le Havre 18%. Fair-value odds: Lens 1.71 | Draw 4.26 | Le Havre 5.57. The model has a clear lean to Lens (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lens are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lens 50% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lens vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 28 | Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lens 59% | Draw 23% | Le Havre 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Lens 1.86 / Le Havre 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Lens attack 1.158 / def 1.008 | Le Havre attack 0.709 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Lens (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Lens xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Le Havre xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lens vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Lens vs Le Havre kick off?
Lens vs Le Havre kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What was the final score in Lens vs Le Havre?
Lens 1 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Lens vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What competition is Lens vs Le Havre part of?
Lens vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 28) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lens vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Lens a 59% chance of winning, Le Havre a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lens vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lens and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lens vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lens's attack rating (1.16) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Lens's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lens's last 65 games and Le Havre's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lens Win
59%
1.71
23%
4.26
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Lens xG
Total xG
2.80
0.94
Le Havre xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
3%
35.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lens vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lens vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Lens and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Lens and 0.94 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Lens vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lens come into this having played 65 games, going 37W 15D 13L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 1.57 PPG from 65 outings (26W 24D 15L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lens on 1.94 PPG, Le Havre on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lens's home form reads 24W 3D 5L across their last 32 home games, a 2.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 1.41 points per game from their last 32 away games (10W 15D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lens are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.11 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Lens have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Le Havre in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lens
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
Lens (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lens
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Lens vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Lens and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Lens have gone 37W 15D 13L in their last 65 games (1.94 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 26W 24D 15L in their last 65 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lens at home or Le Havre away?
Lens's home record (2.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lens at home: 2.34 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Lens or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lens have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Le Havre in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 30 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lens have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Lens's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lens
2
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Lens vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Le Havre?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lens have won 3, Le Havre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lens and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 January 2026: Lens 1-0 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Lens and Le Havre?
Lens have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lens 53%, Le Havre 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Lens) and 38% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Lens keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Le Havre in 38%; Le Havre in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lens home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lens vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lens and Le Havre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Lens's recent matches and 47% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lens and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Lens's recent games and 38% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lens and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Lens's recent matches and 56% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lens and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Regular Season - 28, as Lens and Le Havre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lens 1.86 xG and Le Havre 0.94 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lens fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lens attack 1.16 / defence 1.01 against Le Havre attack 0.71 / defence 1.23, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lens 59% | Draw 23% | Le Havre 18%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lens 51%, Le Havre 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lens's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lens 1.94 PPG, Le Havre 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lens (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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