Lens 0-4 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lens at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lens vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lens and Auxerre meet at Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lens have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lens's home record at Stade Bollaert-Delelis: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Auxerre (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lens lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lens half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lens 42% versus Auxerre 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lens 38% | Auxerre 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lens 1.33 xG and Auxerre 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lens attack 0.757 / defence 0.985 | Auxerre attack 0.895 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.424. Lens's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Lens games / 30 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lens 38% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 35%. Fair-value odds: Lens 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Auxerre 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lens are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lens 30% | Auxerre 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lens vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lens 38% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Lens 1.33 / Auxerre 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Lens attack 0.757 / def 0.985 | Auxerre attack 0.895 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: Lens (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Lens xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Auxerre xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lens vs Auxerre kick off?
Lens vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What was the final score in Lens vs Auxerre?
Lens 0 - 4 Auxerre.
Where is Lens vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What competition is Lens vs Auxerre part of?
Lens vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lens vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Lens a 38% chance of winning, Auxerre a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lens vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lens and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Lens vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Auxerre?
Record (3 meetings): Lens 2W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Lens and Auxerre in?
Lens (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lens's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.90x) against Lens's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 64/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lens Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.78
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Lens xG
Total xG
2.58
1.25
Auxerre xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
9%
10.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lens vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Lens and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Lens and 1.25 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Lens vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Lens have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 27W 15D 22L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Auxerre's form line: 30W 17D 17L from 64 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Lens against 1.67 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lens have posted 1.59 PPG from 32 outings (15W 6D 11L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 11W 8D 13L from 32 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Lens are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.67 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Lens have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lens
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lens and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Lens have gone 27W 15D 22L in their last 64 games (1.50 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 30W 17D 17L in their last 64 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lens at home or Auxerre away?
Lens's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lens at home: 1.59 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Lens or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lens have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Auxerre in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Lens have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Auxerre won 0-4 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lens have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Lens
1
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Auxerre?
From 7 meetings on record, Lens have won 5, Auxerre have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lens and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Lens 5-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Lens and Auxerre?
Lens have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lens 41%, Auxerre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Lens) and 53% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Lens keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lens home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lens play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Lens's recent matches and 62% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lens vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Lens's recent games and 53% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lens and Auxerre tend to score early?
Lens have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Lens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Lens 0-4 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lens 1.33 xG and Auxerre 1.25 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Lens fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Auxerre outscored their 1.25 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lens attack 0.76 / defence 0.98 against Auxerre attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lens 38% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 35%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lens 38%, Auxerre 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lens's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Auxerre's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lens 1.50 PPG, Auxerre 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Lens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.