Le Havre 1-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Le Havre and Saint Etienne meet at Stade Océane in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 March 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form
Le Havre (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 1W 0D 9L at Stade Océane — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Océane this season.
Saint Etienne have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Le Havre against 0.60 for Saint Etienne. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Le Havre, 0 for Saint Etienne and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 2–0 with Le Havre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 48% versus Saint Etienne 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 53% | Saint Etienne 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.67 xG and Saint Etienne 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.664 / defence 1.460 | Saint Etienne attack 0.759 / defence 1.635. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.397. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 1.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.635 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Le Havre games / 24 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 40% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 35%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Saint Etienne 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 30% | Saint Etienne 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Mar 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 40% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Le Havre 1.67 / Saint Etienne 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.664 / def 1.460 | Saint Etienne attack 0.759 / def 1.635 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Saint Etienne xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Le Havre vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Saint Etienne?
Le Havre 1 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Le Havre vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Saint Etienne part of?
Le Havre vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 40% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Le Havre and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Saint Etienne?
Record (3 meetings): Le Havre 2W | Draws 1 | Saint Etienne 0W.
What form are Le Havre and Saint Etienne in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.66) and Saint Etienne's defence rating (1.64), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.76x) against Le Havre's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 58/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
40%
2.48
25%
4.06
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Le Havre xG
Total xG
3.22
1.55
Saint Etienne xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
9%
11.66
7%
15.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.55 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Le Havre have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 13W 13D 32L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne's form line: 23W 11D 24L from 58 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Saint Etienne are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 0.93 PPG from 28 outings (8W 2D 18L).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 7W 6D 15L from 28 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Saint Etienne's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.22 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 13W 13D 32L in their last 58 games (0.90 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 23W 11D 24L in their last 58 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 0.93 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Le Havre won 0-6 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Le Havre
2
Draws
0
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Saint Etienne?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Le Havre 1-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Saint Etienne?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 39%, Saint Etienne 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Le Havre) and 54% (Saint Etienne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 32%; Le Havre have failed to score in 50% of games; Saint Etienne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Le Havre's recent matches and 39% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Le Havre's matches and 54% of Saint Etienne's.
Do Le Havre and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre and Saint Etienne finished level at 1-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.67 xG and Saint Etienne 1.55 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.66 / defence 1.46 against Saint Etienne attack 0.76 / defence 1.64, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 40% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 35%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 53%, Saint Etienne 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.