Le Havre 4-4 Metz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Le Havre at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Metz travel to Stade Océane to take on Le Havre. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Le Havre — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade Océane, Le Havre have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Metz have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Metz have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Le Havre are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Le Havre, 1 for Metz and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Le Havre in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Metz in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 56% versus Metz 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 48% | Metz 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.50 xG and Metz 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.775 / defence 0.757 | Metz attack 0.658 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.284. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Le Havre's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Le Havre games / 30 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 57% | Draw 29% | Metz 14%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 1.75 | Draw 3.45 | Metz 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 50% | Metz 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 57% | Draw 29% | Metz 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 38% | xG Le Havre 1.50 / Metz 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.775 / def 0.757 | Metz attack 0.658 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Metz xG
38%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Metz kick off?
Le Havre vs Metz kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Metz?
Le Havre 4 - 4 Metz.
Where is Le Havre vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Metz part of?
Le Havre vs Metz is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 57% chance of winning, Metz a 14% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Le Havre and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Metz?
Record (5 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 3 | Metz 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Metz in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Metz (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.78x the league average against Metz's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 2-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
57%
1.77
29%
3.45
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.14
0.64
Metz xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
3%
30.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 11.3 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.64 for Metz, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Metz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre's recent record stands at 16W 16D 32L from 64 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-D in the last five.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 26L across 64 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.00 PPG, Metz on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 8W 9D 15L from 32 games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 9W 7D 16L across 32 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.42 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Current Season
Metz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Metz in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 16W 16D 32L in their last 64 games (1.00 PPG), while Metz have gone 22W 16D 26L in their last 64 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Metz away?
Metz's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.03 PPG; Metz away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Metz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Le Havre's record when hosting Metz specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Le Havre
4
Draws
1
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Metz have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Le Havre 4-4 Metz.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 59%, Metz 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Le Havre and 66% for Metz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 34% of games; Metz in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Metz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Le Havre's games and 59% of Metz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Le Havre vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Le Havre's matches and 66% of Metz's.
Do Le Havre and Metz tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Metz in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre and Metz share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre and Metz finished level at 4-4 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.50 xG and Metz 0.64 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Metz outscored their 0.64 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.78 / defence 0.76 against Metz attack 0.66 / defence 1.31, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 57% | Draw 29% | Metz 14%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 48%, Metz 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Metz's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.00 PPG, Metz 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.