Le Havre vs Lyon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lyon (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Le Havre face Lyon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Lyon at Stade Océane in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 0W 4D 6L at Stade Océane — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lyon stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lyon — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Le Havre, 3 for Lyon and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Lyon trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 54% versus Lyon 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 37% | Lyon 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.93 xG and Lyon 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.677 / defence 1.337 | Lyon attack 0.808 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.318. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Le Havre games / 43 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 23% | Draw 30% | Lyon 47%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Lyon 2.13. Lyon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 50% | Lyon 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 23% | Draw 30% | Lyon 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Le Havre 0.93 / Lyon 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.677 / def 1.337 | Lyon attack 0.808 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Lyon (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Lyon xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Lyon kick off?
Le Havre vs Lyon is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Stade Océane.
Where is Le Havre vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Lyon part of?
Le Havre vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 23% chance of winning, Lyon a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Le Havre and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lyon?
Record (7 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 3 | Lyon 3W.
What form are Le Havre and Lyon in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Lyon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.68) and Lyon's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
23%
4.33
30%
3.37
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.35
1.42
Lyon xG
4.33
23%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
6%
17.98
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.6 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.42 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre come into this having played 43 games, going 7W 16D 20L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.79 PPG from 43 outings (23W 8D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lyon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Le Havre's home form reads 5W 9D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.29 points per game from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's season.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.58 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Lyon in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Lyon in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 16D 20L in their last 43 games (0.86 PPG), while Lyon have gone 23W 8D 12L in their last 43 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.14 PPG; Lyon away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Lyon in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Lyon runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when Lyon won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Le Havre's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Le Havre
3
Draws
3
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lyon?
From 7 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Lyon have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Lyon 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 57%, Lyon 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Le Havre) and 48% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Lyon in 43%; Le Havre have failed to score in 38% of games; Lyon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Le Havre's recent matches and 48% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Le Havre's recent games and 48% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Lyon tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lyon in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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