Le Havre 0-4 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Lyon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Lyon at Stade Océane in Ligue 1 (matchday 8). Kick-off is Sunday 20 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Le Havre have gone 3W 0D 7L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Le Havre have posted 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lyon stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lyon away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lyon — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Le Havre, 0 for Lyon and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Jan 2024, ended Le Havre 3–1 Lyon — a Le Havre win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Lyon trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 46% versus Lyon 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 51% | Lyon 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.35 xG and Lyon 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.885 / defence 1.294 | Lyon attack 0.965 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.314. Le Havre's defence rating of 1.294 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lyon's projected output up. Data: built from Le Havre's last 41 games and Lyon's last 41.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 28% | Draw 31% | Lyon 41%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.52 | Draw 3.27 | Lyon 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.35 / 1.64) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Le Havre's last 10 home games and Lyon's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Le Havre 50% (last 10 home games) | Lyon 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 8 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 28% | Draw 31% | Lyon 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Le Havre 1.35 / Lyon 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.885 / def 1.294 | Lyon attack 0.965 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Lyon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Lyon xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Havre vs Lyon FAQs
What time does Le Havre vs Lyon kick off?
Le Havre vs Lyon kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Lyon?
Le Havre 0 - 4 Lyon.
Where is Le Havre vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Lyon part of?
Le Havre vs Lyon is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 8) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 28% chance of winning, Lyon a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Le Havre and Lyon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Le Havre vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.89) and Lyon's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Le Havre's last 41 games and Lyon's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
28%
3.52
31%
3.27
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Le Havre xG
Total xG
3.00
1.64
Lyon xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
6%
18.18
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Havre vs Lyon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.64 for Lyon, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre come into this having played 41 games, going 9W 11D 21L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.54 PPG from 41 outings (19W 6D 16L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Lyon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Le Havre's home form reads 7W 2D 11L across their last 20 home games, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.60 points per game from their last 20 away games (10W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.44 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Lyon
Early Season
Le Havre (Home) vs Lyon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Havre
Early Season
Lyon
Early Season
❓ Le Havre vs Lyon Form FAQs
What form are Le Havre and Lyon in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 9W 11D 21L in their last 41 games (0.93 PPG), while Lyon have gone 19W 6D 16L in their last 41 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.15 PPG; Lyon away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Oct 2024, when Lyon won Le Havre 0-4 Lyon.
Le Havre's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Le Havre
3
Draws
3
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Havre vs Lyon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lyon?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Havre have won 1, Lyon have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Lyon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Lyon 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 45%, Lyon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Le Havre) and 60% (Lyon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 45% of games; Lyon in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Havre vs Lyon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Havre and Lyon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Le Havre's recent matches and 50% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Le Havre and Lyon matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Le Havre's matches and 60% of Lyon's.
Do Le Havre and Lyon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Le Havre's recent matches and 60% of Lyon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lyon run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Le Havre 0-4 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.35 xG and Lyon 1.64 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lyon outscored their 1.64 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.89 / defence 1.29 against Lyon attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 28% | Draw 31% | Lyon 41%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 51%, Lyon 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lyon's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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