Estac Troyes 1-3 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estac Troyes face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Paris Saint Germain travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 May 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estac Troyes stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Estac Troyes at Stade de l'Aube this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Paris Saint Germain have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Paris Saint Germain are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Estac Troyes, 2 for Paris Saint Germain and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 3–4 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Estac Troyes trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Paris Saint Germain trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 62% versus Paris Saint Germain 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 51% | Paris Saint Germain 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 0.84 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.762 / defence 1.135 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.330 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.263. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Paris Saint Germain's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.330 — the away xG of 1.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 71 Estac Troyes games / 71 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 16% | Draw 22% | Paris Saint Germain 63%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 6.25 | Draw 4.55 | Paris Saint Germain 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Estac Troyes 50% | Paris Saint Germain 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 16% | Draw 22% | Paris Saint Germain 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Estac Troyes 0.84 / Paris Saint Germain 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.762 / def 1.135 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.330 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Paris Saint Germain xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Estac Troyes 1 - 3 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 16% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 63% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (3 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 2W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 0.76x the league average against Paris Saint Germain's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
16%
6.31
22%
4.63
63%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.74
1.91
Paris Saint Germain xG
6.31
16%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.60
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
15%
6.73
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
2%
42.48
27%
3.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.91 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 13W 21D 37L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Paris Saint Germain's form line: 50W 11D 10L from 71 games, 2.27 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 1.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
Venue Form
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 0.97 PPG from 35 outings (6W 16D 13L).
On the road, Paris Saint Germain have gone 22W 6D 7L from 35 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.34 scored and 0.99 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Current Season
Paris Saint Germain
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 13W 21D 37L in their last 71 games (0.85 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 50W 11D 10L in their last 71 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 0.97 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Paris Saint Germain have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
3
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Estac Troyes 1-3 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 57%, Paris Saint Germain 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Estac Troyes) and 69% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain in 34%; Estac Troyes have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Paris Saint Germain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Estac Troyes's games and 54% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 69% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Estac Troyes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Estac Troyes 1-3 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 0.84 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.91 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.76 / defence 1.14 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.33 / defence 0.78, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 16% | Draw 22% | Paris Saint Germain 63%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 51%, Paris Saint Germain 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.