Estac Troyes 0-2 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Clermont Foot at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Clermont Foot travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 April 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estac Troyes stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Estac Troyes's home record at Stade de l'Aube: 0W 7D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Clermont Foot's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Clermont Foot's 0.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Estac Troyes's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Estac Troyes register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Clermont Foot in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Estac Troyes, 2 for Clermont Foot and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 3–1 with Estac Troyes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 63% versus Clermont Foot 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 51% | Clermont Foot 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.04 xG and Clermont Foot 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.905 / defence 1.148 | Clermont Foot attack 0.845 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.261. Data: 67 Estac Troyes games / 67 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 31% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 40%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Clermont Foot 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Estac Troyes 70% | Clermont Foot 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 31% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Estac Troyes 1.04 / Clermont Foot 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.905 / def 1.148 | Clermont Foot attack 0.845 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Clermont Foot xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Estac Troyes 0 - 2 Clermont Foot.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot part of?
Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 31% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot?
Record (3 meetings): Estac Troyes 1W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 2W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
31%
3.27
30%
3.38
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.26
1.22
Clermont Foot xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
9%
11.10
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.22 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 13W 20D 34L from 67 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 32L across 67 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 0.88 PPG, Clermont Foot on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 6W 16D 11L from 33 games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 10W 7D 16L across 33 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.00 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 13W 20D 34L in their last 67 games (0.88 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 19W 16D 32L in their last 67 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Clermont Foot away?
Clermont Foot's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.03 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
4
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot?
From 8 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Estac Troyes 2-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 61%, Clermont Foot 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Estac Troyes) and 42% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 42% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 42% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Estac Troyes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Estac Troyes 0-2 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.04 xG and Clermont Foot 1.22 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Estac Troyes fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.91 / defence 1.15 against Clermont Foot attack 0.84 / defence 0.82, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 31% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 40%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 51%, Clermont Foot 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 0.88 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.