Estac Troyes 1-2 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Estac Troyes and Bordeaux meet at Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Estac Troyes (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 2W 3D 3L at Stade de l'Aube — 1.12 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bordeaux's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux's away record: 1W 4D 3L from 8 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Bordeaux in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 35% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Bordeaux — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estac Troyes 53% and Bordeaux 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 41% | Bordeaux 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.87 xG and Bordeaux 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.870 / defence 1.023 | Bordeaux attack 1.000 / defence 1.844. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.290. Bordeaux bring a strong defensive rating of 1.844 — this is suppressing Estac Troyes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Estac Troyes games / 17 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 49% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 26%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Bordeaux 3.85. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 62% | Bordeaux 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 49% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Estac Troyes 1.87 / Bordeaux 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.870 / def 1.023 | Bordeaux attack 1.000 / def 1.844 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Bordeaux xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux?
Estac Troyes 1 - 2 Bordeaux.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux part of?
Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 49% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Estac Troyes and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Bordeaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estac Troyes and Bordeaux in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Bordeaux (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 0.87x the league average against Bordeaux's defence at 1.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bordeaux's attack (1.00x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.01
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
3.19
1.32
Bordeaux xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
15%
6.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
4%
24.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.32 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 4W 4D 9L from 17 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bordeaux, meanwhile, have gone 2W 8D 7L across 17 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Estac Troyes against 0.82 for Bordeaux. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 2W 3D 3L from 8 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bordeaux's away record stands at 1W 4D 3L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Estac Troyes are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.53 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux in 82%.
Last 17 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 2W 8D 7L in their last 17 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Bordeaux away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.12 PPG; Bordeaux away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Estac Troyes have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bordeaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
0
Draws
1
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Bordeaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 3, Bordeaux have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Estac Troyes 2-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Bordeaux?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Estac Troyes, 75% for Bordeaux — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 38% for Estac Troyes and 88% for Bordeaux. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Bordeaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Estac Troyes's games and 75% of Bordeaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Estac Troyes's matches and 88% of Bordeaux's.
Do Estac Troyes and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bordeaux defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Estac Troyes 1-2 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.87 xG and Bordeaux 1.32 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Estac Troyes fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Bordeaux attack 1.00 / defence 1.84, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 49% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 26%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Bordeaux win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 41%, Bordeaux 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Bordeaux's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 0.94 PPG, Bordeaux 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bordeaux (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.