Estac Troyes vs Auxerre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Auxerre make the trip to to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Estac Troyes have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 7W 2D 1L at — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Estac Troyes. A 0.80 PPG lead over Auxerre (2.00 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Auxerre, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Auxerre winning.
It is worth noting that Auxerre have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Auxerre — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 53% versus Auxerre 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 56% | Auxerre 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.35 xG and Auxerre 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.703 / defence 0.965 | Auxerre attack 1.077 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.325. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Estac Troyes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Estac Troyes games / 36 Auxerre games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 35% | Draw 29% | Auxerre 36%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Auxerre 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Auxerre lead the H2H ledger, but Estac Troyes carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Estac Troyes (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 50% | Auxerre 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 35% | Draw 29% | Auxerre 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Estac Troyes 1.35 / Auxerre 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.703 / def 0.965 | Auxerre attack 1.077 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Auxerre xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Auxerre kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Auxerre is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Auxerre part of?
Estac Troyes vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 35% chance of winning, Auxerre a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Estac Troyes and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Auxerre?
Record (4 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 3W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Auxerre in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Auxerre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.08x) against Estac Troyes's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
35%
2.88
29%
3.44
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.72
1.38
Auxerre xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.38 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 21W 8D 7L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Auxerre's form line: 7W 10D 19L from 36 games, 0.86 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Estac Troyes are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 2.44 PPG from 18 outings (14W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.97 PPG overall — Estac Troyes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 2W 6D 10L from 18 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.03 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 21W 8D 7L in their last 36 games (1.97 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 7W 10D 19L in their last 36 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Auxerre away?
Estac Troyes's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 2.44 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Auxerre in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Auxerre have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 0, Auxerre have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2024, when Auxerre 2-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 56%, Auxerre 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Estac Troyes) and 44% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Auxerre in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 50% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 44% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Auxerre tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.