Clermont Foot 0-1 Marseille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Clermont Foot take on Marseille.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Marseille make the trip to Stade Gabriel Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Clermont Foot (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 2W 2D 1L from 5 Ligue 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Clermont Foot are significantly better at Stade Gabriel Montpied than their overall form suggests.
Marseille's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Marseille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Marseille have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Marseille arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Marseille — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 54% versus Marseille 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 54% | Marseille 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.03 xG and Marseille 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.854 / defence 1.182 | Marseille attack 0.795 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.181. Data: 11 Clermont Foot games / 11 Marseille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 29% | Draw 38% | Marseille 33%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.45 | Draw 2.63 | Marseille 3.03. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 60% | Marseille 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 29% | Draw 38% | Marseille 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG Clermont Foot 1.03 / Marseille 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.854 / def 1.182 | Marseille attack 0.795 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Marseille xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Marseille kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Marseille kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Marseille?
Clermont Foot 0 - 1 Marseille.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Marseille part of?
Clermont Foot vs Marseille is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 29% chance of winning, Marseille a 33% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Clermont Foot and Marseille will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Marseille?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and Marseille in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Marseille (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Marseille's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Marseille's attack (0.80x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.42
38%
2.66
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.14
1.11
Marseille xG
3.42
29%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.11 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Clermont Foot come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 4D 4L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Marseille sit at 1.73 PPG from 11 outings (5W 4D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Marseille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Marseille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Clermont Foot's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Clermont Foot are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Marseille have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.73 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Marseille in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Marseille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Marseille in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 games (1.18 PPG), while Marseille have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Marseille away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.60 PPG; Marseille away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Marseille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Marseille in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Marseille have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Marseille won 1-5 on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Marseille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
5
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Marseille?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Marseille have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Marseille last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Clermont Foot 1-5 Marseille.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 60%, Marseille 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Clermont Foot and 20% for Marseille.
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Marseille in 40%; Marseille in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Marseille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 40% of Marseille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Marseille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 20% of Marseille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Marseille tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Marseille in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Marseille edge out Clermont Foot 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Clermont Foot 0-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.03 xG and Marseille 1.11 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Marseille attack 0.80 / defence 0.94, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 29% | Draw 38% | Marseille 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Marseille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 54%, Marseille 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Marseille's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Marseille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.