Clermont Foot 2-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gabriel-Montpied plays host to Clermont Foot versus Le Havre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Clermont Foot have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stade Gabriel-Montpied — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Le Havre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Le Havre arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Clermont Foot 0W, Le Havre 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Le Havre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 52% versus Le Havre 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Le Havre 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.20 xG and Le Havre 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.779 / defence 1.296 | Le Havre attack 0.737 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.228. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Clermont Foot games / 25 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 36% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 35%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Le Havre 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Le Havre (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 40% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 36% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Clermont Foot 1.20 / Le Havre 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.779 / def 1.296 | Le Havre attack 0.737 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Le Havre xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Le Havre kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Le Havre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Le Havre?
Clermont Foot 2 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Le Havre part of?
Clermont Foot vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 36% chance of winning, Le Havre a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Clermont Foot and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Le Havre?
Record (1 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 0 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Le Havre in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.78x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.74x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
36%
2.76
29%
3.46
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.37
1.17
Le Havre xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
10%
9.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.17 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Clermont Foot come into this having played 63 games, going 20W 16D 27L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 1.62 PPG from 63 outings (26W 24D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Clermont Foot's home form reads 10W 7D 14L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 1.45 points per game from 31 outings (10W 15D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.13 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 20W 16D 27L in their last 63 games (1.21 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 26W 24D 13L in their last 63 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.19 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Le Havre in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Le Havre?
From 2 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Le Havre have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2024, when Clermont Foot 2-1 Le Havre.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 45%, Le Havre 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Clermont Foot) and 36% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 39%; Clermont Foot have failed to score in 39% of games; Le Havre in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 45% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 36% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Le Havre tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Clermont Foot edge out Le Havre 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Le Havre 2-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.20 xG and Le Havre 1.17 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.78 / defence 1.30 against Le Havre attack 0.74 / defence 1.19, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 36% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 35%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 48%, Le Havre 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Le Havre's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.