Clermont Foot 2-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 45%, yet in-form Clermont Foot provide a compelling counter-argument — this Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Gabriel Montpied to take on Clermont Foot. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 August 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Ligue 1 matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot carry the stronger recent momentum — 3.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.03 xG and Estac Troyes 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.975 / defence 1.150 | Estac Troyes attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.922 / away 1.575. Data: 1 Clermont Foot games / 1 Estac Troyes games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 22% | Draw 33% | Estac Troyes 45%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 4.55 | Draw 3.03 | Estac Troyes 2.22. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estac Troyes at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Clermont Foot (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 22% | Draw 33% | Estac Troyes 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Clermont Foot 1.03 / Estac Troyes 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.975 / def 1.150 | Estac Troyes attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.922 / away 1.575 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Estac Troyes xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Clermont Foot 2 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes part of?
Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 22% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Estac Troyes (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.97) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
22%
4.59
33%
3.05
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.57
1.54
Estac Troyes xG
4.59
22%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
5%
21.40
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.54 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estac Troyes's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Clermont Foot are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Clermont Foot have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Estac Troyes in 100%.
Defensively: Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Estac Troyes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Clermont Foot or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes?
From 8 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 4, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Estac Troyes 2-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 100% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 100% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Estac Troyes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Estac Troyes 2-0 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.03 xG and Estac Troyes 1.54 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Clermont Foot beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Estac Troyes landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Estac Troyes attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 22% | Draw 33% | Estac Troyes 45%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Clermont Foot win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 0%, Estac Troyes 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Clermont Foot arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Estac Troyes managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.