Bordeaux 0-0 Lorient – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bordeaux vs Lorient fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bordeaux host Lorient at Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bordeaux — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bordeaux's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stade Matmut-Atlantique this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lorient stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Lorient away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lorient are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Bordeaux have won 0, Lorient 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Lorient in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 69% versus Lorient 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 67% | Lorient 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.77 xG and Lorient 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 0.892 / defence 1.437 | Lorient attack 0.714 / defence 1.621. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.251. Lorient bring a strong defensive rating of 1.621 — this is suppressing Bordeaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Bordeaux games / 36 Lorient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 49% | Draw 23% | Lorient 28%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Lorient 3.57. Bordeaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lorient (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 60% | Lorient 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 49% | Draw 23% | Lorient 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Bordeaux 1.77 / Lorient 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 0.892 / def 1.437 | Lorient attack 0.714 / def 1.621 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Lorient xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Lorient kick off?
Bordeaux vs Lorient kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Lorient?
Bordeaux 0 - 0 Lorient.
Where is Bordeaux vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Lorient part of?
Bordeaux vs Lorient is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 49% chance of winning, Lorient a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bordeaux and Lorient will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Lorient?
Record (1 meetings): Bordeaux 0W | Draws 1 | Lorient 0W.
What form are Bordeaux and Lorient in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Lorient (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bordeaux's attack rating (0.89) and Lorient's defence rating (1.62), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lorient's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
49%
2.05
23%
4.29
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
3.05
1.28
Lorient xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
5%
20.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.28 for Lorient, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Lorient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bordeaux come into this having played 36 games, going 5W 12D 19L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Lorient sit at 0.94 PPG from 36 outings (8W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bordeaux on 0.75 PPG, Lorient on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bordeaux's home form reads 3W 6D 9L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Lorient have taken 0.61 points per game from 18 outings (2W 5D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bordeaux are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.47 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 0.94 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Current Season
Lorient
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Lorient in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 5W 12D 19L in their last 36 games (0.75 PPG), while Lorient have gone 8W 10D 18L in their last 36 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Lorient away?
Bordeaux's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 0.83 PPG; Lorient away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bordeaux
2
Draws
0
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Lorient?
From 2 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 0, Lorient have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Lorient last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2022, when Bordeaux 0-0 Lorient.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 72%, Lorient 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bordeaux) and 56% (Lorient).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux have failed to score in 28% of games; Lorient in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Lorient?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Bordeaux's games and 56% of Lorient's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Lorient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bordeaux's recent games and 56% of Lorient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Lorient tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lorient in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bordeaux's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 37, as Bordeaux and Lorient drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.77 xG and Lorient 1.28 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bordeaux fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Lorient landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 0.89 / defence 1.44 against Lorient attack 0.71 / defence 1.62, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 49% | Draw 23% | Lorient 28%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 67%, Lorient 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lorient's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 0.75 PPG, Lorient 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.