Auxerre 2-1 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantes at 44%, yet in-form Auxerre provide a compelling counter-argument — this Auxerre vs Nantes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 31 as Auxerre welcome Nantes to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Auxerre's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nantes — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nantes have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Auxerre, 1 for Nantes and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Nantes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Auxerre in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Nantes in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 57% versus Nantes 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 48% | Nantes 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.92 xG and Nantes 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.635 / defence 1.044 | Nantes attack 0.959 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.269. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.635 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Auxerre games / 68 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 26% | Draw 30% | Nantes 44%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Nantes 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nantes at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Auxerre (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nantes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Nantes 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 26% | Draw 30% | Nantes 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Auxerre 0.92 / Nantes 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.635 / def 1.044 | Nantes attack 0.959 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Nantes (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Nantes xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Nantes kick off?
Auxerre vs Nantes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Nantes?
Auxerre 2 - 1 Nantes.
Where is Auxerre vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Nantes part of?
Auxerre vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 26% chance of winning, Nantes a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Auxerre and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Nantes?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 0 | Nantes 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Nantes in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Nantes (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Nantes's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
26%
3.82
30%
3.32
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.20
1.27
Nantes xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
7%
13.63
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.2 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.27 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre's recent record stands at 26W 21D 21L from 68 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Nantes, meanwhile, have gone 21W 23D 24L across 68 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.46 PPG, Nantes on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 14W 10D 9L from 33 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantes's away record stands at 6W 11D 16L across 33 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.28 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Nantes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Nantes in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 26W 21D 21L in their last 68 games (1.46 PPG), while Nantes have gone 21W 23D 24L in their last 68 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Nantes away?
Auxerre's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.58 PPG; Nantes away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Auxerre's record when hosting Nantes specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
2
Draws
3
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Nantes?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Nantes have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Auxerre 0-0 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Nantes?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 54%, Nantes 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Auxerre) and 46% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Nantes in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Nantes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Auxerre's games and 58% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Auxerre's recent games and 46% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Nantes tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Nantes in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Auxerre defy the odds to beat Nantes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Nantes 2-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.92 xG and Nantes 1.27 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.64 / defence 1.04 against Nantes attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 26% | Draw 30% | Nantes 44%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 48%, Nantes 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Nantes's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.46 PPG, Nantes 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.