Auxerre 1-0 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Auxerre and Montpellier meet at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 March 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Auxerre have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Montpellier (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Auxerre's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Montpellier's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Auxerre, 2 for Montpellier and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 2–3 with Montpellier winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Montpellier goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 55% versus Montpellier 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 55% | Montpellier 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.44 xG and Montpellier 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.913 / defence 0.818 | Montpellier attack 0.598 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.421. Data: 26 Auxerre games / 60 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 54% | Draw 28% | Montpellier 17%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Montpellier 5.88. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Montpellier 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Mar 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 54% | Draw 28% | Montpellier 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Auxerre 1.44 / Montpellier 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.913 / def 0.818 | Montpellier attack 0.598 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Montpellier xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Montpellier kick off?
Auxerre vs Montpellier kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Montpellier?
Auxerre 1 - 0 Montpellier.
Where is Auxerre vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Montpellier part of?
Auxerre vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 54% chance of winning, Montpellier a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Auxerre and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Montpellier?
Record (3 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 0 | Montpellier 2W.
What form are Auxerre and Montpellier in?
Auxerre (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Montpellier (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.91) and Montpellier's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Montpellier's attack (0.60x) against Auxerre's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 26/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
54%
1.84
28%
3.51
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.13
0.69
Montpellier xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
4%
24.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 11.8 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.69 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 28W 17D 15L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Montpellier's form line: 14W 15D 31L from 60 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Auxerre are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Montpellier.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 2.14 PPG from 29 outings (18W 8D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Auxerre are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Montpellier have gone 8W 3D 18L from 29 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.07 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 28W 17D 15L in their last 60 games (1.68 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 14W 15D 31L in their last 60 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Montpellier away?
Auxerre's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.14 PPG; Montpellier away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Montpellier in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Montpellier — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Auxerre
0
Draws
2
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Montpellier?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Montpellier have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Auxerre 1-0 Montpellier.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 45%, Montpellier 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Auxerre) and 52% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Montpellier in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Auxerre's recent matches and 41% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Auxerre's recent games and 52% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Montpellier tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Montpellier 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Montpellier 1-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.44 xG and Montpellier 0.69 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.91 / defence 0.82 against Montpellier attack 0.60 / defence 1.05, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 54% | Draw 28% | Montpellier 17%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 55%, Montpellier 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Montpellier's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.