Auxerre 0-2 Marseille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Marseille at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Marseille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host Marseille at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Auxerre — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Marseille have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Marseille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Marseille have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Marseille — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Auxerre register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Marseille in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Marseille trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 65% versus Marseille 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 54% | Marseille 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.02 xG and Marseille 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.871 / defence 1.027 | Marseille attack 1.038 / defence 0.755. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.597. Marseille's defence strength of 0.755 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 5 Auxerre games / 43 Marseille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 21% | Draw 27% | Marseille 52%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Marseille 1.92. Marseille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Marseille as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Marseille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 60% | Marseille 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 21% | Draw 27% | Marseille 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Auxerre 1.02 / Marseille 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.871 / def 1.027 | Marseille attack 1.038 / def 0.755 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.597 • Poisson stance: Marseille (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Marseille xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Marseille kick off?
Auxerre vs Marseille kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Marseille?
Auxerre 0 - 2 Marseille.
Where is Auxerre vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Marseille part of?
Auxerre vs Marseille is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 21% chance of winning, Marseille a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Auxerre and Marseille will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Marseille?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Marseille in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Marseille (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.87) and Marseille's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Marseille's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
21%
4.74
27%
3.72
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.72
1.70
Marseille xG
4.74
21%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
4%
25.98
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.70 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 21W 14D 8L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Marseille's form line: 25W 9D 9L from 43 games, 1.95 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Marseille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.79 PPG, Marseille on 1.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.86 PPG from 21 outings (11W 6D 4L).
On the road, Marseille have gone 13W 4D 4L from 21 away games — 2.05 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.72 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Marseille in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Marseille
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Marseille in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 21W 14D 8L in their last 43 games (1.79 PPG), while Marseille have gone 25W 9D 9L in their last 43 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Marseille away?
Marseille's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.86 PPG; Marseille away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Marseille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Marseille in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Marseille runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Marseille go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2025, when Auxerre won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Marseille specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Auxerre
0
Draws
4
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Marseille?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Marseille have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Marseille last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Marseille 1-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 62%, Marseille 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Auxerre) and 38% (Marseille).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Marseille in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Marseille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Auxerre's recent matches and 43% of Marseille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Marseille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Auxerre's recent games and 38% of Marseille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Marseille tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Marseille in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Marseille cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Auxerre 0-2 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.02 xG and Marseille 1.70 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.87 / defence 1.03 against Marseille attack 1.04 / defence 0.76, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 21% | Draw 27% | Marseille 52%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 54%, Marseille 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Marseille's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.79 PPG, Marseille 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Marseille win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Marseille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.