Auxerre 1-1 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Lille travel to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to take on Auxerre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lille have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lille away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Auxerre 1.90 PPG, Lille 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Auxerre have won 0, Lille 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 1–4 with Lille winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lille trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Auxerre 58% and Lille 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 49% | Lille 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.85 xG and Lille 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.704 / defence 1.033 | Lille attack 1.046 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.253. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Auxerre games / 69 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 23% | Draw 29% | Lille 48%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Lille 2.08. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Lille 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 23% | Draw 29% | Lille 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Auxerre 0.85 / Lille 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.704 / def 1.033 | Lille attack 1.046 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Lille (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Lille xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Lille kick off?
Auxerre vs Lille kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Lille?
Auxerre 1 - 1 Lille.
Where is Auxerre vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Lille part of?
Auxerre vs Lille is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 23% chance of winning, Lille a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Auxerre and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lille?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 0 | Lille 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Lille in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Lille (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
23%
4.35
29%
3.46
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.20
1.35
Lille xG
4.35
23%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
6%
16.86
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.0 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.35 for Lille, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 69 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 27W 21D 21L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Lille's form line: 30W 20D 19L from 69 games, 1.59 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.48 PPG, Lille on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.62 PPG from 34 outings (15W 10D 9L).
On the road, Lille have gone 13W 8D 13L from 34 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.51 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille in 62%.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Lille in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 27W 21D 21L in their last 69 games (1.48 PPG), while Lille have gone 30W 20D 19L in their last 69 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Lille away?
Auxerre's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.62 PPG; Lille away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2022, when Lille won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Lille specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
2
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lille?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Lille have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Lille 0-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 56%, Lille 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 50% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Auxerre's games and 59% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Auxerre's recent games and 50% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Lille tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lille in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre and Lille share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 32, as Auxerre and Lille drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.85 xG and Lille 1.35 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.70 / defence 1.03 against Lille attack 1.05 / defence 0.85, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 23% | Draw 29% | Lille 48%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 49%, Lille 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Lille's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.48 PPG, Lille 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.