Auxerre 3-4 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 36%, yet in-form Lille provide a compelling counter-argument — this Auxerre vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Lille travel to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to take on Auxerre. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 December 2025, 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lille have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lille are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Auxerre have won 0, Lille 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 1–3 with Lille winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Lille trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 51% versus Lille 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 55% | Lille 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.10 xG and Lille 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.713 / defence 0.883 | Lille attack 1.078 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.147. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Auxerre games / 49 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 36% | Draw 29% | Lille 35%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Lille 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lille (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 50% | Lille 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 36% | Draw 29% | Lille 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Auxerre 1.10 / Lille 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.713 / def 0.883 | Lille attack 1.078 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Lille xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Lille kick off?
Auxerre vs Lille kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Lille?
Auxerre 3 - 4 Lille.
Where is Auxerre vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Lille part of?
Auxerre vs Lille is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 36% chance of winning, Lille a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Auxerre and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lille?
Record (4 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 2 | Lille 2W.
What form are Auxerre and Lille in?
Auxerre (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Lille (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
36%
2.81
29%
3.43
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.19
1.09
Lille xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
12%
8.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.09 for Lille, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 14W 12D 23L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille's form line: 26W 11D 12L from 49 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lille are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
Venue Form
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.42 PPG from 24 outings (9W 7D 8L).
On the road, Lille have gone 9W 6D 9L from 24 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.65 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Lille in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 14W 12D 23L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Lille have gone 26W 11D 12L in their last 49 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Lille away?
Auxerre's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.42 PPG; Lille away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lille in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2022, when Lille won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Lille specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
2
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lille?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Lille have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Lille 0-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 42%, Lille 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 42% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Lille in 38%; Auxerre have failed to score in 29% of games; Lille in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Auxerre's recent matches and 38% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Auxerre's recent games and 42% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Lille tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Lille in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lille defy the odds to beat Auxerre 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Auxerre 3-4 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.10 xG and Lille 1.09 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lille outscored their 1.09 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.71 / defence 0.88 against Lille attack 1.08 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 36% | Draw 29% | Lille 35%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 55%, Lille 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Lille's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lille (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.