Auxerre 1-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Estac Troyes make the trip to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to face Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Auxerre (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Estac Troyes have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Auxerre. A 0.70 PPG lead over Estac Troyes (1.00 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Auxerre, 0 for Estac Troyes and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Auxerre — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Auxerre 59% and Estac Troyes 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 48% | Estac Troyes 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.50 xG and Estac Troyes 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.666 / defence 1.147 | Estac Troyes attack 0.936 / defence 1.636. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.269. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.666 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Estac Troyes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.636 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Auxerre games / 66 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 39% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 33%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Estac Troyes 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 50% | Estac Troyes 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 39% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Auxerre 1.50 / Estac Troyes 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.666 / def 1.147 | Estac Troyes attack 0.936 / def 1.636 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Estac Troyes xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Auxerre vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Estac Troyes?
Auxerre 1 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Auxerre vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Estac Troyes part of?
Auxerre vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 39% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Auxerre and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Estac Troyes?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Estac Troyes in?
Auxerre (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Estac Troyes (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Estac Troyes's defensive record (1.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.94x) against Auxerre's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.57
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.87
1.36
Estac Troyes xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
7%
13.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.36 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 24W 21D 21L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Estac Troyes's form line: 13W 20D 33L from 66 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Auxerre are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.53 PPG from 32 outings (13W 10D 9L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 7W 4D 21L from 32 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.14 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 64%.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 24W 21D 21L in their last 66 games (1.41 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 13W 20D 33L in their last 66 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Estac Troyes away?
Auxerre's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.53 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Auxerre have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Auxerre
1
Draws
0
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Estac Troyes?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 3, Estac Troyes have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2024, when Auxerre 2-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Estac Troyes?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 56%, Estac Troyes 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 66% (Estac Troyes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Estac Troyes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Auxerre's games and 69% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Auxerre's matches and 66% of Estac Troyes's.
Do Auxerre and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Estac Troyes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Estac Troyes 1-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.50 xG and Estac Troyes 1.36 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.67 / defence 1.15 against Estac Troyes attack 0.94 / defence 1.64, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 39% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 33%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 48%, Estac Troyes 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.