Angers 1-0 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Stade Brestois 29 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Angers welcome Stade Brestois 29 to Stade Raymond-Kopa. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Angers have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Angers are significantly better at Stade Raymond-Kopa than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Stade Brestois 29's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Stade Brestois 29's 1.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Angers's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Angers, 0 for Stade Brestois 29 and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Angers in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Stade Brestois 29 in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Angers 57% and Stade Brestois 29 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 46% | Stade Brestois 29 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 0.82 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.696 / defence 1.277 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.817 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.130. Angers's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Angers games / 28 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 26% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 44%. Fair-value odds: Angers 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Stade Brestois 29 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Angers 50% | Stade Brestois 29 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 26% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Angers 0.82 / Stade Brestois 29 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.696 / def 1.277 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.817 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Stade Brestois 29 xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Angers vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Stade Brestois 29?
Angers 1 - 0 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Angers vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Angers vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 26% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Angers and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (1 meetings): Angers 0W | Draws 1 | Stade Brestois 29 0W.
What form are Angers and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Angers (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Angers's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Stade Brestois 29's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
26%
3.90
30%
3.32
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Angers xG
Total xG
2.00
1.18
Stade Brestois 29 xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
8%
12.69
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 16.0 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Angers and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Angers and 1.18 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Angers have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 7W 8D 13L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Stade Brestois 29's form line: 9W 8D 11L from 28 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.04 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Angers have posted 1.14 PPG from 14 outings (5W 1D 8L).
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 4W 5D 5L from 14 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Angers are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.29 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 in 64%.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Current Season
Stade Brestois 29
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 7W 8D 13L in their last 28 games (1.04 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 9W 8D 11L in their last 28 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Stade Brestois 29's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.14 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Angers and Stade Brestois 29 runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jan 2023, when Stade Brestois 29 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Angers's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Angers
2
Draws
4
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Stade Brestois 29?
From 8 meetings on record, Angers have won 2, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Stade Brestois 29 1-1 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 43%, Stade Brestois 29 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Angers) and 43% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Angers have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Angers's games and 79% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Angers vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Angers's recent games and 43% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Angers defy the odds to beat Stade Brestois 29 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Stade Brestois 29 1-0 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 0.82 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.18 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stade Brestois 29 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.70 / defence 1.28 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 26% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 44%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Angers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 46%, Stade Brestois 29 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.04 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.