Angers 1-4 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Angers host Nice at Stade Raymond Kopa in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Angers — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Raymond Kopa, Angers have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nice stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nice away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Angers at 1.50 PPG versus Nice's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Angers register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Nice in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Angers have won 1, Nice 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Angers in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Nice in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 44% versus Nice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 44% | Nice 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.08 xG and Nice 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.711 / defence 1.089 | Nice attack 0.961 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.354. Angers's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Angers games / 36 Nice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Angers 27% | Draw 30% | Nice 43%. Fair-value odds: Angers 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Nice 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Angers 70% | Nice 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 27% | Draw 30% | Nice 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Angers 1.08 / Nice 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.711 / def 1.089 | Nice attack 0.961 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Nice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Nice xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Nice kick off?
Angers vs Nice kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Nice?
Angers 1 - 4 Nice.
Where is Angers vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Nice part of?
Angers vs Nice is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 27% chance of winning, Nice a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Angers and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Nice?
Record (4 meetings): Angers 1W | Draws 1 | Nice 2W.
What form are Angers and Nice in?
Angers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Nice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Angers's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Nice's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
27%
3.69
30%
3.35
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Angers xG
Total xG
2.49
1.42
Nice xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
7%
15.22
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Angers and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Angers and 1.42 for Nice, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Angers's recent record stands at 19W 6D 11L from 36 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 10L across 36 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.75 PPG, Nice on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Angers have managed 13W 2D 3L from 18 games — 2.28 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Angers are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nice's away record stands at 6W 6D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.17 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Nice in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Early Season
Nice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Nice in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 19W 6D 11L in their last 36 games (1.75 PPG), while Nice have gone 15W 11D 10L in their last 36 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Nice away?
Angers's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 2.28 PPG; Nice away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Angers or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nice in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when Nice won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Angers's record when hosting Nice specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Angers
1
Draws
5
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Nice?
From 8 meetings on record, Angers have won 2, Nice have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Angers 0-2 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 39%, Nice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Angers) and 44% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Nice in 33%; Nice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Angers's recent matches and 50% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Angers's recent games and 44% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Nice tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Nice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nice run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Angers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Angers 1-4 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.08 xG and Nice 1.42 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Nice outscored their 1.42 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.71 / defence 1.09 against Nice attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Angers 27% | Draw 30% | Nice 43%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 44%, Nice 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Nice's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.75 PPG, Nice 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.