Angers 1-3 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Angers and Monaco meet at Stade Raymond-Kopa in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Angers have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Angers's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 2L across 7 games at Stade Raymond-Kopa this term (1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Raymond-Kopa. Their home PPG of 1.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Angers are significantly better at Stade Raymond-Kopa than their overall form suggests.
Monaco (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monaco away from home this season: 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Monaco are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Angers half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Angers 67% and Monaco 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 47% | Monaco 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.34 xG and Monaco 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.958 / defence 1.158 | Monaco attack 0.743 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.189. Data: 15 Angers games / 15 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 42% | Draw 31% | Monaco 27%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Monaco 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Angers at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Monaco (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Angers if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Angers 43% | Monaco 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Dec 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 42% | Draw 31% | Monaco 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Angers 1.34 / Monaco 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.958 / def 1.158 | Monaco attack 0.743 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Angers (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Monaco xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Monaco kick off?
Angers vs Monaco kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Monaco?
Angers 1 - 3 Monaco.
Where is Angers vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Monaco part of?
Angers vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 42% chance of winning, Monaco a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Angers and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Monaco?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Angers and Monaco in?
Angers (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Monaco (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Angers's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (0.74x) against Angers's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.24
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Angers xG
Total xG
2.36
1.02
Monaco xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
7%
14.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Angers and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Angers and 1.02 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Angers come into this having played 15 games, going 5W 7D 3L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Monaco sit at 1.33 PPG from 15 outings (5W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Angers against 1.33 for Monaco. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Angers's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Monaco have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.33 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Angers have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Monaco in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 5W 7D 3L in their last 15 games (1.47 PPG), while Monaco have gone 5W 5D 5L in their last 15 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Monaco away?
Angers's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.86 PPG; Monaco away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Angers or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Monaco in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Angers
1
Draws
6
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Monaco?
From 8 meetings on record, Angers have won 1, Monaco have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Monaco 2-0 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 43%, Monaco 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Angers) and 43% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Monaco in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Monaco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Angers's recent matches and 43% of Monaco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Angers's recent games and 43% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Monaco tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Monaco in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Angers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Angers 1-3 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.34 xG and Monaco 1.02 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Monaco outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.96 / defence 1.16 against Monaco attack 0.74 / defence 1.15, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 42% | Draw 31% | Monaco 27%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Monaco win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 47%, Monaco 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Monaco's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.47 PPG, Monaco 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.