Ajaccio 0-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Toulouse at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajaccio vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Toulouse make the trip to Stade François Coty to face Ajaccio in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ajaccio have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ajaccio's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stade François Coty this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Ajaccio are significantly better at Stade François Coty than their overall form suggests.
Toulouse's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Toulouse's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Toulouse are 0.50 PPG clear of Ajaccio in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (0.90 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ajaccio, 1 for Toulouse and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2023, ended 0–2 with Toulouse winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Toulouse — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 30% versus Toulouse 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 34% | Toulouse 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 0.78 xG and Toulouse 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.492 / defence 1.190 | Toulouse attack 1.039 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.252. Ajaccio's attack strength of 0.492 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Ajaccio games / 33 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 19% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 56%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Toulouse 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 20% | Toulouse 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 19% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Ajaccio 0.78 / Toulouse 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.492 / def 1.190 | Toulouse attack 1.039 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Toulouse xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Toulouse kick off?
Ajaccio vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Toulouse?
Ajaccio 0 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Ajaccio vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Toulouse part of?
Ajaccio vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 19% chance of winning, Toulouse a 56% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ajaccio and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Toulouse?
Record (3 meetings): Ajaccio 1W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Ajaccio and Toulouse in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Toulouse (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ajaccio's attack rating (0.49) and Toulouse's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (1.04x) against Ajaccio's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-2 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
19%
5.31
26%
3.91
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.33
1.55
Toulouse xG
5.31
19%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
4%
24.97
25%
3.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 15.1 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.55 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Toulouse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ajaccio come into this having played 71 games, going 28W 13D 30L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 1.69 PPG from 71 outings (35W 15D 21L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Ajaccio against 1.69 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ajaccio's home form reads 16W 5D 14L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.51 PPG return.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.49 points per game from 35 outings (15W 7D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajaccio are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.83 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 28W 13D 30L in their last 71 games (1.37 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 35W 15D 21L in their last 71 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Toulouse away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.51 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.49 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Toulouse in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajaccio have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ajaccio
2
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Toulouse?
From 4 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 1, Toulouse have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Ajaccio 0-0 Toulouse.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 26%, Toulouse 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Ajaccio) and 60% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Toulouse in 31%; Ajaccio have failed to score in 49% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 54% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Ajaccio's recent games and 60% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Toulouse tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 51% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ajaccio's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 34, as Ajaccio and Toulouse drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 0.78 xG and Toulouse 1.55 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Toulouse landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.49 / defence 1.19 against Toulouse attack 1.04 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 19% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 56%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 34%, Toulouse 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Toulouse's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajaccio 1.37 PPG, Toulouse 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ajaccio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.