VPS 0-2 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ilves at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VPS vs Ilves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Championship Round - 4 as VPS welcome Ilves to Lemonsoft Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VPS — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's home record at Lemonsoft Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Ilves have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ilves have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ilves's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of VPS's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for VPS, 2 for Ilves and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 2–3 with Ilves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (52 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Ilves trading profile (52 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 60% versus Ilves 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 62% | Ilves 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.45 xG and Ilves 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.074 / defence 1.241 | Ilves attack 0.997 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.248. Data: 44 VPS games / 44 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 35% | Draw 26% | Ilves 39%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Ilves 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VPS 90% | Ilves 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 35% | Draw 26% | Ilves 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG VPS 1.45 / Ilves 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 1.074 / def 1.241 | Ilves attack 0.997 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Ilves (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Ilves xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Ilves kick off?
VPS vs Ilves kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Ilves?
VPS 0 - 2 Ilves.
Where is VPS vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Ilves part of?
VPS vs Ilves is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 35% chance of winning, Ilves a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both VPS and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Ilves?
Record (6 meetings): VPS 3W | Draws 1 | Ilves 2W.
What form are VPS and Ilves in?
VPS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Ilves (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates VPS's attack at 1.07x the league average against Ilves's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
35%
2.85
26%
3.92
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
VPS xG
Total xG
2.99
1.54
Ilves xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
7%
13.34
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are VPS and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for VPS and 1.54 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VPS's recent record stands at 27W 9D 16L from 52 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 15L across 52 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VPS on 1.73 PPG, Ilves on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VPS have managed 13W 6D 5L from 24 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 9W 7D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VPS are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.63 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and Ilves in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 27W 9D 16L in their last 52 games (1.73 PPG), while Ilves have gone 22W 15D 15L in their last 52 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Ilves away?
VPS's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.88 PPG; Ilves away: 1.42 PPG.
Have VPS or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Ilves in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VPS and Ilves runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when VPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VPS's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VPS
1
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 5, Ilves have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when VPS 3-2 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Ilves?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Ilves see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 71%, Ilves 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (VPS) and 33% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Ilves in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play Ilves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of VPS's games and 42% of Ilves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VPS vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of VPS's recent games and 33% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and Ilves tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ilves in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ilves cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over VPS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat VPS 0-2 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Championship Round - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.45 xG and Ilves 1.54 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. VPS fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.07 / defence 1.24 against Ilves attack 1.00 / defence 0.83, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 35% | Draw 26% | Ilves 39%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 62%, Ilves 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (52 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Ilves's trading profile (52 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.73 PPG, Ilves 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. VPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Ilves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.