VPS 3-0 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AC Oulu at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VPS vs AC Oulu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VPS host AC Oulu at Lemonsoft Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 July 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, VPS have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Lemonsoft Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AC Oulu — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. AC Oulu's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of VPS's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for VPS, 1 for AC Oulu and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 1–2 with AC Oulu winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (44 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
AC Oulu trading profile (44 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 46% versus AC Oulu 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 57% | AC Oulu 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 0.98 xG and AC Oulu 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.883 / defence 0.943 | AC Oulu attack 1.448 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.051. AC Oulu have an above-average attack strength of 1.448 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 VPS games / 37 AC Oulu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 25% | Draw 29% | AC Oulu 47%. Fair-value odds: VPS 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | AC Oulu 2.13. AC Oulu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AC Oulu as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Oulu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VPS 20% | AC Oulu 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jul 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 25% | Draw 29% | AC Oulu 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG VPS 0.98 / AC Oulu 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.883 / def 0.943 | AC Oulu attack 1.448 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.44
AC Oulu xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs AC Oulu kick off?
VPS vs AC Oulu kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 July 2023 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs AC Oulu?
VPS 3 - 0 AC Oulu.
Where is VPS vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs AC Oulu part of?
VPS vs AC Oulu is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 25% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both VPS and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and AC Oulu?
Record (2 meetings): VPS 1W | Draws 0 | AC Oulu 1W.
What form are VPS and AC Oulu in?
VPS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. AC Oulu (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from VPS's attack rating (0.88) and AC Oulu's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AC Oulu's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
25%
4.06
29%
3.47
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
VPS xG
Total xG
2.42
1.44
AC Oulu xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
6%
17.05
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.8 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are VPS and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for VPS and 1.44 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VPS come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 7D 21L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AC Oulu sit at 1.64 PPG from 44 outings (21W 9D 14L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VPS on 1.25 PPG, AC Oulu on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
VPS's home form reads 5W 4D 11L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, AC Oulu have taken 1.80 points per game from 20 outings (11W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Oulu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VPS are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 1.66 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
AC Oulu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 16W 7D 21L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 21W 9D 14L in their last 44 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or AC Oulu away?
AC Oulu's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 0.95 PPG; AC Oulu away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jun 2026, when VPS won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VPS's record when hosting AC Oulu specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VPS
1
Draws
4
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and AC Oulu?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 5, AC Oulu have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when VPS 5-1 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between VPS and AC Oulu?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 35%, AC Oulu 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VPS) and 65% (AC Oulu). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VPS have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play AC Oulu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of VPS's recent matches and 70% of AC Oulu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VPS vs AC Oulu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of VPS's matches and 65% of AC Oulu's.
Do VPS and AC Oulu tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, AC Oulu in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VPS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AC Oulu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat AC Oulu 3-0 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 0.98 xG and AC Oulu 1.44 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. VPS beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AC Oulu landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against AC Oulu attack 1.45 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 25% | Draw 29% | AC Oulu 47%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a VPS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 57%, AC Oulu 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (44 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
AC Oulu's trading profile (44 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.25 PPG, AC Oulu 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. VPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.