SJK 3-0 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SJK at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SJK vs Mariehamn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to OmaSp Stadion to face SJK in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Friday 10 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
SJK (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at OmaSp Stadion, SJK have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for SJK against 1.50 for Mariehamn. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SJK register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Mariehamn in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across 8 previous meetings, SJK are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 2, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2025, ended 4–1 with SJK winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SJK and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
SJK — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SJK 70% and Mariehamn 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SJK 80% | Mariehamn 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.53 xG and Mariehamn 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.066 / defence 0.959 | Mariehamn attack 0.966 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.628. Data: 23 SJK games / 23 Mariehamn games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SJK 36% | Draw 28% | Mariehamn 35%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Mariehamn 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SJK 70% | Mariehamn 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (23 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: OmaSp Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 36% | Draw 28% | Mariehamn 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG SJK 1.53 / Mariehamn 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.066 / def 0.959 | Mariehamn attack 0.966 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.628 • Poisson stance: SJK (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Mariehamn xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Mariehamn kick off?
SJK vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 10 April 2026 at OmaSp Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Mariehamn?
SJK 3 - 0 Mariehamn.
Where is SJK vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at OmaSp Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Mariehamn part of?
SJK vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 36% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SJK and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Mariehamn?
Record (8 meetings): SJK 6W | Draws 0 | Mariehamn 2W.
What form are SJK and Mariehamn in?
SJK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.07x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.97x) against SJK's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.54
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
SJK xG
Total xG
3.03
1.51
Mariehamn xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.43
8%
12.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are SJK and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for SJK and 1.51 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, SJK have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 26W 13D 15L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Mariehamn's form line: 15W 13D 26L from 54 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SJK are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mariehamn.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SJK have posted 1.73 PPG from 26 outings (13W 6D 7L).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 6W 6D 14L from 26 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SJK are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.13 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SJK have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 26W 13D 15L in their last 54 games (1.69 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 15W 13D 26L in their last 54 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Mariehamn away?
SJK's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.73 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won 0-4 on 21 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
SJK
0
Draws
3
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 7, Mariehamn have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Mariehamn 2-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Mariehamn?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for SJK, 62% for Mariehamn — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for SJK and 58% for Mariehamn. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of SJK's games and 62% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of SJK's matches and 58% of Mariehamn's.
Do SJK and Mariehamn tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SJK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Mariehamn 3-0 at OmaSp Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.53 xG and Mariehamn 1.51 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mariehamn landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against Mariehamn attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 23/23 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 36% | Draw 28% | Mariehamn 35%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 80%, Mariehamn 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.